Canadian Dollar CAD forecast The pair Canadian Dollar to US Dollar USD/CAD closed the trading week near the level of 1.2270. The pair continues to move in the fall. At this point, we should expect a test of the level of 1.2150, from which we should expect a rebound and the pair’s growth above the level of 1.27.
In favor of the growth of the pair will form a reversal model of the «Head and Shoulders» on the indicator of relative strength index (RSI). The cancellation of the growth of USD/CAD quotations in the current trading week will be the fall and breakdown of the area of 1.200, which will indicate the continuation of the decline below the level of 1.1750.
USD/CAD edged higher last week and consolidation from 1.2061 extended. The overall outlook is unchanged though. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. We’d remain cautious on strong support from 1.2048 to bring sustainable rebound. But still, break of 1.2439 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. Firm break of 1.2048 will pave the way to next Fibonacci level at 1.1424. Break of 1.2412 will bring stronger rise back to 55 days EMA (now at 1.2538) and above.
In the bigger picture, the focus remains on 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. As long as this level holds, we’d still favor that case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Rebound from 1.2048 could extend the larger up trend from 0.9406. However, firm break of 1.2048 will indicate that fall from 1.4689 is at least a medium-term downtrend and should target 61.8% retracement at 1.1424 and below.
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