USDJPY Weekly Outlook The Japanese Yen is expected to trade at 114.00 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 118.00 in 12 months time.
USD/JPY’s fall from 114.49 extend lower last week and breached 108.81 support. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Sustained break of 108.81 will resume whole corrective fall from 118.65 and target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. On the upside, above 109.55 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 110.61 support turned resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.
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