USDCAD Trump Shock Pushes Canadian Dollar Down

USDCAD FOREX EXCHANGE LOWER MIDDAY Monday August 21

USDCAD FOREX EXCHANGE LOWER MIDDAY Monday August 21

USDCAD FOREX EXCHANGE  traded at 1.2584 on Monday August 21. Historically, the Canadian Dollar
USD/CAD remains on the downside for the moment. As noted before, corrective recovery from 1.2412 could have completed at 1.2777 already. Deeper decline would be seen back to 1.2412 low first. Break there will resume the larger decline and target next long term fibonacci level at 1.2048. On the upside, above 1.2690 will extend the correction from 1.2412 with another rise. But we’d expect upside to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940 to bring fall resumption eventually.

USDCAD FOREX EXCHANGE  traded at 1.2584 on Monday August 21. Historically, the Canadian Dollar reached an all time high of 1.61 in January of 2002 and a record low of 0.92 in November of 2007.

The Loonie is quiet today as it consolidates in a narrow range. Commodities are mixed this morning with oil consolidating from Friday’s gains. We have Wholesale trade data this morning, which printed below forecast and Retail Sales will release tomorrow.

The USD is trading softer today on quiet market trading. The focus this week will be Jackson Hole this Friday where FED Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi will speak. Expectations for Fed tightening has once again soften with the possibility of a December rate hike down to 30%. Equities are slightly weaker today as the broader market tone looks to be one of mild risk aversion. On the data front, there’s no major data release today. The next major data release will be US Oil Inventories on Wednesday and Unemployment Claims on Thursday. FC



USDCAD FOREX EXCHANGE

 

The expect a range today of 1.2519 to 1.2619

Canadian Dollar vs Euro and Great British Pound

Quiet day on the fundamental front in Europe today, but there will be more data to come later this week. Perhaps the most anticipated event this week will be Draghi’s appearance in Lindau, Germany on Wednesday and Wyoming, US on Friday where he will be speaking. There are rumours that he is expected to make no major shift in tone in his appearances. The Euro is currently trading at 1.4810. CK

We expect a range today of 1.4759 to 1.4888

 



 

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USDCAD Trump Shock Pushes Canadian Dollar Down

USDCAD FOREX EXCHANGE OPENED HIGHER Monday August 21

USDCAD FOREX EXCHANGE OPENED HIGHER Monday August 21

USDCAD FOREX EXCHANGE increased 0.0001 or 0.01% to 1.2585 on Monday August 21 from 1.2584
Chart updates and trade setups from the Weekly Outlook Video will be updated as needed below….so stay tuned….your comments are needed and appreciated….please post any trade setups or trade results….thanks in advance……

USDCAD FOREX EXCHANGE increased 0.0001 or 0.01% to 1.2585 on Monday August 21 from 1.2584 in the previous trading session. Historically, the Canadian Dollar reached an all time high of 1.61 in January of 2002 and a record low of 0.92 in November of 2007.

Although the greenback has retreated after meeting resistance at 1.2778, as long as 1.2535-40 holds, further consolidation would be seen and prospect of another corrective bound remains, above said resistance would extend the recovery from 1.2414 low to 1.2800, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.2850-60 and bring another decline, below 1.2535-40 would suggest the rebound from 1.2414 has ended, bring weakness to 1.2490-00, then test of 1.2451, break of latter level would signal recent decline has resumed for retest of 1.2414. Having said that, break there is needed to confirm recent wave c decline is under way for weakness to 1.2350, then 1.2300 but loss of momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.2200-10 and price should stay well above 1.2000 level, bring rebound later. We are keeping our bearish count that wave b ended at 1.3794 and wave c has commenced for further fall to aforesaid downside targets.



USDCAD FOREX EXCHANGE

We are keeping our view that the wave b from 1.0657 (a leg top) has possibly ended at 0.9633 with (a): 0.9800, wave (b): 1.0447 and wave c at 0.9633, the subsequent rise from there is now treated as wave c exceeded indicated upside target at 1.3770-80 and 1.4000 and wave (3) has possibly ended at 1.4690 and wave (4) correction has commenced for retracement back to 1.2410-20, then towards 1.2200.




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USDCAD Trump Shock Pushes Canadian Dollar Down

USDCAD FX EXCHANGE Weekly Outlook August 21, 2017

USDCAD FX EXCHANGE Weekly Outlook August 21, 2017

USDCAD FX EXCHANGE  corrective recovery from 1.2412 could have completed at 1.2777 already.
USDCAD pair followed the price template that we had laid out for the past few days and it seems to be going well according to the plan. Few weeks back, we had mentioned that the pair had corrected too much and though the pair was in a downtrend for some time, we believed that a correction of the downtrend was well due and had even mentioned the region around 1.24 which was likely to bring in the bounce.

USDCAD FX EXCHANGE  corrective recovery from 1.2412 could have completed at 1.2777 already. Initial bias remains mildly on the downside for retesting 1.2412 first. Break there will resume the larger decline and target next long term fibonacci level at 1.2048. On the upside, above 1.2690 will extend the correction fro 1.2412 with another rise. But we’d expect upside to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940 to bring fall resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. Such corrective fall is still expected to extend to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we’d look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Nonetheless, on the upside, sustained break of 1.2968, 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940 will be the first sign of completion of the correction and will turn focus back to 1.3793 key resistance.



USDCAD FX EXCHANG

USDCAD Daily
USDCAD Daily

The BOC was being very bullish about the Canadian economy which was supported by the strong data thrown up by the country over the last few weeks while the US and the Fed has been struggling with weak and choppy data. Last week, we did see the US data getting better but on Friday, we saw some strong CPI data from Canada and we also saw the oil prices move up by close to $2 which helped to support the CAD. This helped the pair to break through the support region at 1.2660 and the pair trades below 1.26 to close the week, a clear signal that the downtrend has resumed.




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USDCAD Trump Shock Pushes Canadian Dollar Down

USDCAD FOREX EXCHANGE LOWER MIDDAY Friday August 18

USDCAD FOREX EXCHANGE LOWER MIDDAY Friday August 18

USDCAD FOREX EXCHANGE decreased 0.0092 or 0.72% to 1.2586 on Friday August 18 from 1.2677
As noted before, the corrective recovery from 1.2412 should have completed at 1.2777 already. Further decline is expected to retest 1.2412 low. Break there will resume the larger decline and target next long term fibonacci level at 1.2048. On the upside, above 1.2777 will extend the recovery. But we’d expect upside to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940 to bring fall resumption.

USDCAD FOREX EXCHANGE decreased 0.0092 or 0.72% to 1.2586 on Friday August 18 from 1.2677 in the previous trading session. Historically, the Canadian Dollar reached an all time high of 1.61 in January of 2002 and a record low of 0.92 in November of 2007.

The USD/CAD pair traded with a mild negative bias on Friday and eroded part of previous session’s strong recovery gains from sub-1.2600 level, two-week lows.



USDCAD FOREX EXCHANGE

Currently trading around the 1.2660-55 region, the pair struggled to gain any follow through traction amid some renewed US Dollar selling bias. The greenback retreated across the board following rumours that National Economic Council Chairman Gary Cohn was set to resign, which added to growing concerns over the Trump administration’s ability to push forward pro-growth economic policies.

On the other hand, crude oil prices seem to have entered a bullish consolidation phase and remained supportive of the mildly positive tone around the commodity-linked currency – Loonie, which is eventually seen weighing on the major.




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USDCAD Trump Shock Pushes Canadian Dollar Down

USDCAD FOREX EXCHANGE OPENED HIGHER Friday August 18

USDCAD FOREX EXCHANGE OPENED HIGHER Friday August 18

USDCAD FOREX EXCHANGE increased 0.0072 or 0.57% to 1.2686 on Friday August 18 from 1.2614
USD/CAD down 1.09% Daily outlook – USD/CAD down 1.09% The USD/CAD currency exchange rate had a quite turbulent Wednesday, as the Greenback depreciated against the Loonie by 1.09% and, in the result, broke through the southern boundaries of a medium-term and short-term channels. To a large extent the downfall was caused by disappointing news coming from both the White House and …

USDCAD FOREX EXCHANGE increased 0.0072 or 0.57% to 1.2686 on Friday August 18 from 1.2614 in the previous trading session. Historically, the Canadian Dollar reached an all time high of 1.61 in January of 2002 and a record low of 0.92 in November of 2007.

USD/CAD’s fall and break of 1.2652 minor support suggests that recovery from 1.2412 has completed at 1.2777 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for retesting 1.2412 low. Break there will resume the larger decline and target next long term fibonacci level at 1.2048. On the upside, above 1.2777 will extend the recovery. But we’d expect upside to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940 to bring fall resumption.



USDCAD FOREX EXCHANGE

 

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. Such corrective fall is still expected to extend to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we’d look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Nonetheless, on the upside, sustained break of 1.2968, 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940 will be the first sign of completion of the correction and will turn focus back to 1.3793 key resistance.




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USDCAD Trump Shock Pushes Canadian Dollar Down

USDCAD Forex Exchange Higher Midday Thursday August 17

USDCAD Forex Exchange Higher Midday Thursday August 17

USDCAD Forex Exchange increased 0.0024 or 0.19% to 1.2638 on Thursday August 17 from 1.2614
USD/CAD’s fall and break of 1.2652 minor support suggests that recovery from 1.2412 has completed at 1.2777 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for retesting 1.2412 low. Break there will resume the larger decline and target next long term fibonacci level at 1.2048. On the upside, above 1.2777 will extend the recovery. But we’d expect upside to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940 to bring fall resumption.

 USDCAD Forex Exchange increased 0.0024 or 0.19% to 1.2638 on Thursday August 17 from 1.2614 in the previous trading session. Historically, the Canadian Dollar reached an all time high of 1.61 in January of 2002 and a record low of 0.92 in November of 2007.

The Canadian dollar has edged higher in the Tuesday session. In North American trade, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2756, up 0.28% on the day. On the release front, there are no Canadian events for a second straight day. In the US, Retail Sales came in at 0.6%, above the estimate of 0.3%. Core Retail Sales also looked sharp,



USDCAD Forex Exchange

with the gain of 0.5% beating the forecast of 0.3%. There was more good news from the manufacturing sector, as the Empire State Manufacturing Index soared to 25.2, crushing the estimate of 10.1 points. On Wednesday, the US releases Building Permits and Housing Starts. As well, the FOMC publishes its minutes from the July FOMC meeting.

It’s been a disappointing August for the Canadian dollar, which has dropped 2.2% this month. The currency has become less attractive with the current tensions in the Korean peninsula. Investors have lost some of their risk appetite and stayed away from minor currencies such as the Canadian dollar, preferring safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen and gold. Still, Canadian fundamentals are in good shape, as recent employment and housing numbers have been strong. The currency is closely linked to oil prices, with the loonie gaining ground in July as oil prices went up, only to retract in August as crude prices have dropped this month.

 



 

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USDCAD Trump Shock Pushes Canadian Dollar Down

USDCAD Forex Exchange Opened Lower Wednesday August 16

USDCAD Forex Exchange Opened Lower Wednesday August 16

USDCAD Forex Exchange decreased 0.0130 or 1.02% to 1.2625 on Thursday August 17 from 1.2754
The unemployment rate in Canada decreased to 6.3 percent in July of 2017 from 6.5 percent in the previous month and better than market expectations of 6.5 percent. It is the lowest jobless rate since October of 2008. The number of unemployed persons fell by 23.5 thousand while employed rose 10.9 thousand, beating market consensus of a 10 thousand increase Unemployment decreased by 23,500 to 1,246,800, and employment went up by 10.9 thousand to 18,421,900. Full-time employment increased by 35.1 thousand while part-time employment decreased by 24.3 thousand.

USDCAD Forex Exchange decreased 0.0130 or 1.02% to 1.2625 on Thursday August 17 from 1.2754 in the previous trading session. Historically, the Canadian Dollar reached an all time high of 1.61 in January of 2002 and a record low of 0.92 in November of 2007.

The Canadian dollar has posted slight gains in the Wednesday session. In North American trade, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2726, down 0.25% on the day. On the release front, Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases shocked the markets, recording a decline of C$0.92 billion, compared to an estimate of a gain of C$23.45 billion. This marked the first decline since December 2015. In the US, housing numbers were softer than expected. Building Permits dipped to 1.22 million shy of the forecast of 1.25 million. Housing Starts slowed to 1.16 million, missing the estimate of 1.22 million. Later in the day, the FOMC will release the minutes of its July policy meeting. On Thursday, there are two major events in the US – unemployment claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.



USDCAD Forex Exchange

The Federal Reserve releases its July minutes on Wednesday, and the markets will be listening closely. Although we’re unlikely to learn anything new about the likelihood of a rate hike before the end of the year, analysts will be looking for further details about the Fed’s balance sheet, which has ballooned to $4.2 trillion. At the June policy meeting, the Fed outlined plans to begin reducing the balance sheet, but shied away from providing any details regarding the size of the reductions or a start time for the plan. Analysts expect September will be the start date, and the Fed could start the process by slowing its asset purchases by a modest amount, such as $10 billion/mth. Once the reductions start, the US dollar stands to make gains for two reasons. First, the move would mark a vote of confidence in the US economy. Second, a reduction of $60 billion is expected to have the same effect as a quarter-point rate hike, which would make the dollar a more attractive asset for investors.




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USDCAD Trump Shock Pushes Canadian Dollar Down

USDCAD Forex Exchange Lower Midday Wednesday August 16

USDCAD Forex Exchange Lower Midday Wednesday August 16

USDCAD Forex Exchange decreased 0.0042 or 0.33% to 1.2713 on Wednesday August 16 from 1.2754
With the USDCAD’s recent pullback from 1.2770-75 horizontal-region, an immediate ascending trend-line support, at 1.2715 now, becomes important to observe, breaking which 1.2690 and the 1.2650 can follow the suit. During the pair’s additional drops after 1.2650, the 1.2600 and the 1.2565 may be flashed in sellers’ radar. If at all the pair surpasses 1.2775 resistance-region, it becomes capable enough to aim for 1.2860 and then to the 1.2900 round-figure resistances. However, the quote needs more buying strength to confront the 1.2945, the 1.3000 psychological magnet and the 1.3010-15 line afterwards.

USDCAD Forex Exchange decreased 0.0042 or 0.33% to 1.2713 on Wednesday August 16 from 1.2754 in the previous trading session. Historically, the Canadian Dollar reached an all time high of 1.61 in January of 2002 and a record low of 0.92 in November of 2007.

USD/CAD’s recovery from 1.2412 resumed and reaches as high as 1.2777 so far. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for further rise. Nonetheless, such rise is viewed as a corrective move. And based on current momentum, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.2652 minor support will argue that the recovery is completed and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.2412.



USDCAD Forex Exchange

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. Such corrective fall is still expected to extend to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we’d look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Nonetheless, on the upside, sustained break of 1.2968, 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940 will be the first sign of completion of the correction and will turn focus back to 1.3793 key resistance.




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USDCAD Trump Shock Pushes Canadian Dollar Down

USDCAD Forex Exchange Opened Higher Wednesday August 16

USDCAD Forex Exchange Opened Higher Wednesday August 16

USDCAD Forex Exchange increased 0.0036 or 0.28% to 1.2754 on Wednesday August 16 from 1.2718 in the p
There were a couple of big news scheduled to be released for the day and while one did not bring about much of a reaction, the other piece of data brought in the required volatility to the markets. We had the inflation data from the UK which came in at a slightly weaker than expected value of 2.6% which basically means that the BOE would not be in a position to think about rate hikes anytime soon. Already, the BOE was reluctant to announce any such drastic measures just when the UK is going through the uncertain Brexit process

USDCAD Forex Exchange increased 0.0036 or 0.28% to 1.2754 on Wednesday August 16 from 1.2718 in the previous trading session. Historically, the Canadian Dollar reached an all time high of 1.61 in January of 2002 and a record low of 0.92 in November of 2007.

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. The corrective rise from 1.2412 might still extend higher. But based on current momentum, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.2552 minor support will argue that the recovery is completed and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.2412.



USDCAD Forex Exchange

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. Such corrective fall is still expected to extend to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we’d look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Nonetheless, on the upside, sustained break of 1.2968, 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940 will be the first sign of completion of the correction and will turn focus back to 1.3793 key resistance.




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