Buz Investors Oil Shorts I had a lighthearted conversation with a colleague not so long ago, asking if they feel they might have an irrational bias toward shorting oil, simply because the flow on effect will mean cheaper petrol when they go to fill up their cars later on.

Oil Shorts in Play or an Irrational Bias for Cheap Petrol?

Oil Shorts in Play or an Irrational Bias for Cheap Petrol?

Buz Investors Oil Shorts I had a lighthearted conversation with a colleague not so long ago, asking if they feel they might have an irrational bias toward shorting oil, simply because the flow on effect will mean cheaper petrol when they go to fill up their cars later on.

Buz Investors Oil Shorts I had a lighthearted conversation with a colleague not so long ago, asking if they feel they might have an irrational bias toward shorting oil, simply because the flow on effect will mean cheaper petrol when they go to fill up their cars later on. I honestly feel I might have this! Am I alone here? Surely not. Well, now we’ve got that little disclaimer out of the way, lets have a look at some oil charts. We’ve been watching this oil resistance zone that we can see on the weekly below. Price has rejected out of the zone and we’ve seen some follow through, which has brought us down to retest the upper side of this bearish



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Oil Shorts

Price has rejected out of the zone and we’ve seen some follow through, which has brought us down to retest the upper side of this bearish trend line, this time as possible support.

Oil Daily:
160313_oil_daily
Click on chart to see a larger view.

This is the level that’s in play, but seeing as though the higher time frame horizontal support has held and we’ve seen the follow through from sellers that we have, I am inclined to play oil from the short side.




Commodities ( Gold ) ( Silver ) ( Lithium )




Silver prices middle range created during the summer

Silver Prices Bounce Putting Shorts to the Test

Silver Prices Bounce Putting Shorts to the Test

Silver

  • Buz Investors Silver Prices Bounce The precious metal is trading at $16.51 per ounce at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.72% lower from the New York close.
  • During the session, silver traded at a high of $16.72 per ounce and a low of $16.26 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, silver rose 0.09% and closed at $16.63 per ounce, tracking gains in gold prices.
  • Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at $16.26 per ounce, while on the upside, the first resistance level is at $16.76 per ounce.

Silver Prices Bounce

Silver prices middle range created during the summer

Silver Prices Bounce After three sessions of gains, gold prices declined by Rs 20 to Rs 28,710 per 10 grams today on easing demand from local jewellers and weak global cues.

Silver followed suit and dropped by Rs 500 to 40,100 per kg on reduced offtake by industrial units and coin makers.

Bullion traders said that apart from a weak trend overseas, fall in demand from local jewellers at the domestic spot market mainly led to the decline in the precious metals’ prices.

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Silver Prices Bounce 

The yellow metal had gained Rs 430 in the previous three days.

Globally, gold fell 0.48 per cent to $1,174.50 an ounce and silver by 0.97 per cent to $16.39 an ounce in Singapore.

In the national capital, gold of 99.9 per cent and 99.5 per cent purity declined by Rs 20 each to Rs 28,710 and Rs 28,560 per 10 grams, respectively.

Since July the price of silver has been trending lower, marked by the clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows; until this changes the trend doesn’t. But with that said, there is room for silver to trade up towards resistance surrounding 17. At which point we would take especial interest in how it reacts given its significance since June. Gold is approaching the 1190/1200 area it broke down from back in November; a test of that critical area will be watched with keen interest as well.

For now, the short-term trend in silver is higher, and until it can snap back lower taking out previous daily lows, we view silver in a neutral to slightly bullish light. A drop to 16 or worse will likely mean the trend is resuming, and may call for us to turn our attention back towards the previously targeted area around 14.80/50.

Commodities ( Gold ) ( Silver ) ( Lithium )




Speculators Extend Record Sterling Shorts in the Futures Market

Speculators Extend Record Sterling Shorts in the Futures Market



Speculators Extend Record Sterling Shorts in the Futures Market

Speculators Extend Record Sterling Shorts in the Futures Market

Sterling Shorts For a period that included a BOJ and FOMC meeting and the US GDP, speculators in the currency futures were unusually quiet. Summer holidays with family may be more important. Of the 16 gross currency futures speculative positions we track, 12 of them were less than 5k contracts. There was only one gross position adjustment more than 10k contracts. Euro bears covered 13.2k gross short euro contracts, leaving them with 208.6k. It snapped a five week accumulation run, which is part of a larger streak. It was only the second week since mid-May that gross euro shorts were reduced. The speculative gross short sterling position

The speculative gross short sterling position increased by 5.5k contracts.  It is not very much, but it managed to extend the record short position, which now stood at 115.9k contracts as the BOE meeting got underway.  It is the fifth consecutive weekly increase in the speculative gross short position.  Incidentally, it was also the second week in a row the some bulls are trying to pick a bottom.  They added 3.6k contracts in the latest reporting period that ended August 2, to bring the gross long position to 33.4k contracts.

Speculators’ position adjustment in the Swiss franc was interesting, and also illustrates the value of looking at gross positions rather than the more traditional exclusive focus on net positions.  Speculators reduced exposure to the franc futures.  The bull liquidated 5.6k contracts (leaving them with 21.2k), while the bears covered 2.9k contracts (leaving them with 22.9k).  The result was a swing in the net position from long a little less than one thousand contracts to being short 1.7k.

The bulls had moved into ascendancy in the 10-year Treasury note futures.  However, they decided to take a little off the table, while the bears tried to pick a top.  The gross long position fell 31k contracts to 575.5k.  The gross short position grew by 33.3k contracts.  This resulted a reduction of the net long position to 121.2k contracts from 185.5k.

… (full story)