Swiss National Bank SNB maintained key interest rate

Switzerland Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged

Switzerland Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged

BUZ INVESTORS  Monetary Policy Unchanged  The Swiss National Bank held its deposit interest rate at a record low of -0.75 percent on June 15th, 2017 as widely expected, aiming to stabilize the inflation and support growth. Policymakers said that the Swiss franc remains overvalued and that a negative rate and forex interventions are intended to rein the currency. The target range for three-month libor was also left steady between -1.25 percent and -0.25 percent.

SNB press release:

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy, with the aim of stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity. Interest on sight deposits at the SNB is to remain at –0.75% and the target range for the three-month Libor is unchanged at between –1.25% and –0.25%. The SNB will remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration. The negative interest rate and the SNB’s willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market are intended to make Swiss franc investments less attractive, thereby easing pressure on the currency. The Swiss franc is still significantly overvalued.




Monetary Policy Unchanged

 

The new conditional inflation forecast differs little from that of March. The SNB continues to anticipate an inflation rate of 0.3% for the current year. For 2018, the forecast has fallen slightly to 0.3%, from 0.4% in the previous quarter. For 2019, it now expects inflation of 1.0%, compared to 1.1% last quarter. The conditional inflation forecast is based on the assumption that the three-month Libor remains at –0.75% over the entire forecast horizon.

In line with the SNB’s expectations, the global economy has strengthened further. Owing to the economic growth, the labour market situation in advanced economies has improved in recent quarters. Despite positive developments in the real economy, inflation remains modest in most advanced economies. Against this background, monetary policy in Japan and the euro area, in particular, is likely to remain very expansionary. In the US, monetary conditions are expected to gradually normalise.

In its new baseline scenario for the global economy, the SNB anticipates that economic developments will remain favourable. The cautiously optimistic baseline scenario continues to be subject to considerable downside risks; this is due to political uncertainty and structural problems in a number of advanced economies.

According to initial quarterly estimates of the national accounts, positive stimuli from abroad were again only partially transmitted to the Swiss economy in the first quarter of 2017. Although GDP growth firmed somewhat, it still remained subdued at an annualised 1.1%, having already been weak in the second half of 2016. However, available economic indicators point to slightly more robust economic momentum. For 2017, the SNB continues to expect growth of roughly 1.5%.

In the first quarter, growth in mortgage lending remained constant at a relatively low level, and momentum in residential real estate prices continued at a measured pace. At the same time, owing to developments in fundamentals and the generally subdued activity on the mortgage and residential real estate markets, imbalances have fallen slightly in recent quarters. Nevertheless, they are still just as pronounced as they were in 2014, when the sectoral countercyclical capital buffer was set at 2%. The SNB will continue to monitor developments on these markets closely, and will regularly reassess the need for an adjustment of the countercyclical capital buffer.

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Buz Investors EURUSD Marginally Higher A very light economic calendar and some easing political concerns are resulting in a modest gain in EUR/USD in today’s trading. The pair is currently at 1.0619, up 0.10% over Friday’s close.

EURUSD Edges Up, Markets Eye ECB Policy Meeting

EURUSD Edges Up, Markets Eye ECB Policy Meeting




EURUSD

BUZ INVESTORS Markets Eye ECB Policy  This morning at 09:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.0895 against the USD, 0.29% higher from the New York close. Earlier today, data revealed that the French industrial business climate index remained steady in April. This morning, the pair traded at a high of 1.0898 and a low of 1.0850. The Euro traded 0.06% higher against the US Dollar in the New York session yesterday, with the pair closing the session at 1.0863. The pair is expected to its find support at 1.0853 and its first resistance at 1.0918.



Markets Eye ECB Policy  

Euro Dollar Exchange Rate Data | Chart | Calendar

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The EURUSD increased 0.0072 or 0.66% to 1.0936 on Tuesday April 25 from 1.0864 in the previous trading session. Historically, the Euro Dollar Exchange Rate – EUR/USD reached an all time high of 1.87 in July of 1973 and a record low of 0.

The EURUSD spot exchange rate specifies how much one currency, the EUR, is currently worth in terms of the other, the USD. While the EURUSD spot exchange rate is quoted and exchanged in the same day, the EURUSD forward rate is quoted today but for delivery and payment on a specific future date. This page provides the latest reported value for – Euro Dollar Exchange Rate – EUR/USD – plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Euro Dollar Exchange Rate – EUR/USD – actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases – was last updated on April of 2017.

70 in February of 1985. The euro was only introduced as a currency on the first of January of 1999. However, synthetic historical prices going back much further can be modeled if we consider a weighted average of the previous currencies.

Euro Steady While Yen And Gold Ease; Canadian Dollar Weakens

The euro remained steady, near five-month highs against the dollar, while the yen and gold retreated as the outcome of the French elections dampened demand for safe havens. Markets shrugged off North Korean artillery drills carried out today to mark the 85th anniversary of the Korean People’s Army.

Currency markets were relatively quiet during Asian trading due to a lack of key economic data releases as well as a public holiday in Australia and New Zealand, which left investors to digest the news of the French election results. A likely success for centrist Emmanuel Macron in the May 7 vote has eased market jitters, which is helping underpin the euro, since Macron has a mainstream economic reform agenda. The latest polls are forecasting that he will handily defeat Marine Le Pen, who is a far-right populist urging an exit from the euro. An Ipsos poll predicts a 62% win for Macron versus 38% for Le Pen.

However, as the week gets underway, market focus may temporarily shift away from the elections to other important events such as the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan policy meetings, as well as key data on US GDP. Also, Trump said he will be announcing a light version of his tax reform plan possibly on Wednesday. Markets will also look out for any new developments regarding the risk of a US government shutdown amid a federal funding feud.

The euro touched its highest point in five months on Monday at $1.0919 before easing lower to trade in a tight range around $1.0860 before heading higher into the European session open. The euro was stronger against the yen to rise towards the key 120-yen level. Against sterling, the euro stayed close to the key 85 pence level.

 

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BUZ INVESTORS European Shares Seen Lower European stocks look set to open lower on Monday, with Brexit worries

European Shares Seen Lower On US Policy Woes

European Shares Seen Lower On US Policy Woes

BUZ INVESTORS European Shares Seen Lower European stocks look set to open lower on Monday, with Brexit worries

BUZ INVESTORS European Shares Seen Lower European stocks look set to open lower on Monday, with Brexit worries and the dollar’s weakness against the euro and pound likely to keep investors nervous.

British Prime Minister Theresa May plans to trigger the two-year Brexit process on Wednesday after saying she would rather walk away with no deal than accept a bad deal.

In news out of Germany, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party won elections in the western state of Saarland, underscoring the challenge facing her Social Democratic rivals as they seek to deny her a fourth term in September.



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European Shares Seen Lower

The Japanese yen strengthened, gold prices rose over 1 percent to hit a one-month high and the dollar sagged to hover near a two-month low against a basket of currencies, as the inability to overhaul the U.S. healthcare system triggered concerns about the prospects for President Donald Trump’s plans to use fiscal stimulus to boost growth.

Trump suffered a spectacular defeat in repealing the healthcare legislation after Republicans pulled their bill to overhaul the U.S. healthcare system amid indications of a shortage of votes.

Oil futures dipped in Asian deals as signs of increased drilling activity in the U.S. overshadowed media reports that OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers are looking at extending an agreement to cut supplies by six months.

In economic releases, sentiment in the British financial services sector stabilized in the three months to March after having deteriorated throughout 2016, the Financial Services Survey from the Confederation of British Industry and PricewaterhouseCoopers showed.

About 33 percent of firms said they were more optimistic about the overall business situation compared with three months ago, whilst 29 percent were less optimistic, giving a balance of +4 percent compared to -35 percent in the December quarter.

U.S. stocks ended mixed on Friday, with the Dow declining 0.3 percent and the S&P slipping marginally while the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.2 percent.

European markets ended Friday’s session with small losses despite better-than-expected economic activity data in the currency area.

The pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 index eased 0.2 percent. France’s CAC 40 index declined 0.2 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 slid marginally while the German DAX rose 0.2 percent.


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2017 Outlook: Will Policy Changes Extend the Expansion?

2017 Outlook: Will Policy Changes Extend the Expansion?

2017 Outlook: Will Policy Changes Extend the Expansion?

2017 Outlook: Will Policy Changes Extend the Expansion?

2017 Outlook Despite a strong year-end performance by the stock market and a post-election jump in confidence among consumers and businesses, limited information on the new Administration’s potential economic policies led to a conservative 2017 growth projection of 2.0 percent, according to the Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group’s January 2017 Economic and Housing Outlook. Improved consumer spending in the third quarter drove a slight upward revision from the prior forecast; moreover, a friendly labor market and rising household wealth should continue to support consumers. Business fixed investment is expected to pick up – particularly in the equipment space – as the drag from declining oil prices faded and should add to 2017 growth. Additionally, government spending and inventory investment are expected to add to growth this year, while the dollar should continue to weigh heavily on net exports. Mortgage rates are predicted to rise gradually in the coming year, ultimately reaching a fourth quarter average of 4.3 percent. There is risk that rates could rise faster and higher than forecasted, but the impact on housing could be offset by strengthened income growth.




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2017 Outlook

 

“Policy changes under the new Administration – in its nature, sequencing, and magnitude – will determine the direction of economic growth in 2017,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. “Incoming data suggest improving consumer spending, diminished labor market slack, and advancements in wages, but until we can more clearly read the political tea leaves, it’s difficult to say whether this late-cycle expansion will continue into its eighth year. Thus our theme for the year: Will Policy Changes Extend the Expansion? If stimulus policy is enacted, it would likely add to growth but could also be offset by potential tightened trade policy given the already historically strong dollar.”

“We expect housing to remain resilient and continue its recovery in 2017, with affordability standing out as the industry’s greatest obstacle, particularly for first-time homeowners,” added Duncan. “Demographic factors, however, are positive. Our research shows that older Millennials have begun to buy homes and close the homeownership attainment gap with their predecessors.”

Visit the Economic & Strategic Research site at www.fanniemae.com to read the full January 2017 Economic Outlook, including the Economic Developments Commentary, Economic Forecast, Housing Forecast, and Multifamily Market Commentary. To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group, please click here.

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae’s business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.

Fannie Mae helps make the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and affordable rental housing possible for millions of Americans. We partner with lenders to create housing opportunities for families across the country. We are driving positive changes in housing finance to make the home buying process easier, while reducing costs and risk. To learn more, visit fanniemae.com and follow us on twitter.com/fanniemae.

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Buz Investors Monetary Policy Unchanged The European Central Bank held its benchmark refinancing rate at 0 percent for the eighth straight time and left the pace of its bond-purchases unchanged on January 19th, as widely expected.

ECB Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged

ECB Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged

  • Buz Investors Monetary Policy Unchanged The European Central Bank held its benchmark refinancing rate at 0 percent for the eighth straight time and left the pace of its bond-purchases unchanged on January 19th, as widely expected.
  • Policymakers confirmed the monthly asset purchases will run at the current monthly pace of €80 billion until March, and from April, they are intended to continue at a monthly pace of €60 billion until the end of the year. Both the deposit rate and the lending rate were also left steady at -0.4 percent and 0.25 percent, respectively.
  • Interest Rate in the Euro Area averaged 2.15 percent from 1998 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 4.75 percent in October of 2000 and a record low of 0 percent in March of 2016.




Monetary Policy Unchanged

Buz Investors Monetary Policy Unchanged The European Central Bank held its benchmark refinancing rate at 0 percent for the eighth straight time and left the pace of its bond-purchases unchanged on January 19th, as widely expected.Buz Investors Monetary Policy Unchanged The European Central Bank held its benchmark refinancing rate at 0 percent for the eighth straight time and left the pace of its bond-purchases unchanged on January 19th, as widely expected.

The European Central Bank held its benchmark refinancing rate at 0 percent for the eighth straight time and left the pace of its bond-purchases unchanged on January 19th, as widely expected. Policymakers confirmed the monthly asset purchases will run at the current monthly pace of €80 billion until March, and from April, they are intended to continue at a monthly pace of €60 billion until the end of the year.

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Monetary Policy Unchanged

Excerpts from the Introductory statement to the press conference by Mario Draghi:
Looking ahead, we expect the economic expansion to firm further. The pass-through of our monetary policy measures is supporting domestic demand and facilitating the ongoing deleveraging process. The very favourable financing conditions and improvements in corporate profitability continue to promote the recovery in investment. Moreover, sustained employment gains, which are also benefiting from past structural reforms, provide support for private consumption via increases in households’ real disposable income. At the same time, there are signs of a somewhat stronger global recovery. However, economic growth in the euro area is expected to be dampened by a sluggish pace of implementation of structural reforms and remaining balance sheet adjustments in a number of sectors. The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remain tilted to the downside and relate predominantly to global factors.
According to Eurostat, euro area annual HICP inflation increased markedly from 0.6% in November 2016 to 1.1% in December. This reflected mainly a strong increase in annual energy inflation, while there are no signs yet of a convincing upward trend in underlying inflation. Looking ahead, on the basis of current oil futures prices, headline inflation is likely to pick up further in the near term, largely reflecting movements in the annual rate of change of energy prices. However, measures of underlying inflation are expected to rise more gradually over the medium term, supported by our monetary policy measures, the expected economic recovery and the corresponding gradual absorption of slack.

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Buz Investors UK Leaves Monetary Policy The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to hold the Bank Rate at a record low of 0.25 percent and to leave the stock of purchased assets at £435 billion on December 15th, 2016

UK Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged

UK Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged

  • Buz Investors UK Leaves Monetary Policy The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to hold the Bank Rate at a record low of 0.25 percent and to leave the stock of purchased assets at £435 billion on December 15th, 2016
  • in order to meet the 2 percent inflation target, in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment.
  • Policymakers reiterated that the path of monetary policy would depend on the evolution of the prospects for demand, supply, the exchange rate, and therefore inflation. The central bank expects inflation to rise to the 2 percent target within six months. Interest Rate in the United Kingdom averaged 7.77 percent from 1971 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 17 percent in November of 1979 and a record low of 0.25 percent in August of 2016.

UK Leaves Monetary Policy

Buz Investors UK Leaves Monetary Policy The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to hold the Bank Rate at a record low of 0.25 percent and to leave the stock of purchased assets at £435 billion on December 15th, 2016

UK Leaves Monetary Policy  The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to hold the Bank Rate at a record low of 0.25 percent and to leave the stock of purchased assets at £435 billion on December 15th, 2016, in order to meet the 2 percent inflation target, in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. Policymakers reiterated that the path of monetary policy would depend on the evolution of the prospects for demand, supply, the exchange rate, and therefore inflation.

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UK Leaves Monetary Policy

Since November, long-term interest rates have risen internationally, including in the United Kingdom. In part, this reflects expectations of looser fiscal policy in the United States which, if it materialises, will help to underpin the slightly greater momentum in the global economy evident in a range of data since the summer. At the same time, however, the global outlook has become more fragile, with risks in China, the euro area and some emerging markets, and an increase in policy uncertainty.
Domestically, data released since the Committee’s previous meeting continue to indicate that activity is growing at a moderate pace, supported by solid consumption growth.  Forward-looking components of business surveys are weaker than those regarding current output, however, suggesting that some slowing in activity is in prospect during 2017. The timing and extent of this slowing will depend crucially on the evolution of wages and how resilient household spending is to the pressure on real incomes from higher inflation.
Twelve-month CPI inflation stood at 1.2% in November, up from 0.9% in October and 1.0% in September. Looking forward, the MPC expects inflation to rise to the 2% target within six months. Since the Committee’s previous meeting, sterling’s trade-weighted exchange rate has appreciated by over 6%, while dollar oil prices have risen by 14%. All else equal, this would result in a slightly lower path for inflation than envisaged in the November Inflation Report, though it is still likely to overshoot the target later in 2017 and through 2018.
The MPC’s Remit requires that monetary policy should balance the speed with which inflation is returned to the target with the support for real activity. The lower level of sterling since the vote to leave the European Union has adversely affected that trade-off.  Sterling’s effect on CPI inflation will ultimately prove temporary and fully offsetting it would require exerting further downward pressure on domestic costs, including wages, and would therefore involve lost output and higher unemployment.  The Committee continues to judge that such outcomes would be undesirable and, consistent with its Remit, that it would therefore be appropriate to set policy so that inflation returns to its target over a longer period than the usual 18-24 months.
Equally, there are limits to the extent to which above-target inflation can be tolerated.  Those limits depend, for example, on the cause of the inflation overshoot, the extent of second-round effects on domestic costs, the evolution of inflation expectations, and the scale of the shortfall in economic activity below potential.  Inflation expectations at medium-term horizons had been somewhat below their past average levels, reflecting the period of below-target inflation, although some measures have risen more recently.  The Committee continues to monitor the evolution of these expectations closely.
China's economic and financial operations

PBOC to keep prudent, neutral monetary policy in 2017

PBOC to keep prudent, neutral monetary policy in 2017

  • Buz Investors PBOC  China’s central bank out with a statement. Bloomberg reporting. 31 Dec 2016 will maintain liquidity basically stable in 2017 will put more importance on averting financial risks Essentially a repeat of the on-going mantra.
  • No further detail at present. I need to head out now but I’d like to take this further opportunity to thank you for your fantastic support and input throughout a remarkable year. I wish all of you a peaceful and profitable 2017.
  • In Sydney the countdown is beginning and my youngest daughter awaits her first NYE down at the harbour, a spectacle I’ve had the great fortune to witness for myself

PBOC

Buz Investors PBOC  China's central bank out with a statement. Bloomberg reporting. 31 Dec 2016 will maintain liquidity basically stable in 2017 will put more importance on averting financial risks Essentially a repeat of the on-going mantra.

PBOC  The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will keep liquidity basically stable by flexibly using various policy tools, it said in a statement summarizing the fourth quarter monetary policy committee meeting.

“At present, China’s economic and financial operations are generally stable, but the complexity of the situation cannot be underestimated,” the central bank said.

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PBOC

Policy insiders expect monetary policy to tilt toward slight tightening in 2017 as top leaders struggle to strike a balance between supporting the economy with flush credit and preventing a destabilizing build-up in debt.

Central bank adviser Sheng Songcheng told Reuters in an interview on Thursday that interest rates in China are already on an upward trend as the economy improves.

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USDJPY Sentiment Instills Bearish Outlook for USDJPY as Positioning Gets Stretched Again

USDJPY Outlook Hinges on BoJ/Fed Policy

USDJPY Outlook Hinges on BoJ/Fed Policy

USD-JPY

  • Buz Investors USDJPY Outlook This morning, at 09:40 GMT, the US Dollar is trading at 104.91 against the Yen, 0.16% higher from the New York close.
  • Overnight data showed that, Japan’s flash industrial production surprisingly remained flat on a monthly basis in September. During the session,
  • the pair traded at a high of 104.99 and a low of 104.50. In the New York session on Friday, the USD fell 0.53% against the JPY to close at 104.74. The pair is expected to its find support at 104.40 and its first resistance at 105.47.

USDJPY Outlook may face range-bound conditions

USDJPY Sentiment Instills Bearish Outlook for USDJPY as Positioning Gets Stretched Again

USDJPY Outlook may face range-bound conditions even after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decisions as both central bank are widely anticipated to retain their current policies in November; however, fresh updates from Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Co. may drag on the Japanese Yen should the central bank push out its forecast for achieving the 2% target for inflation.

 

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USDJPY Outlook


As a result, the BoJ may keep the door open to further embark on its easing-cycle, but it seems as though the central bank will carry its wait-and-see approach into 2017 as officials continue to assess the impact of the quantitative/qualitative-easing (QE) program with ‘yield-curve control.’

Former-resistance around 104.20 (61.8% retracement) may continue to offer near-term support as market participants wait for the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric, with the first topside hurdle standing at 105.40 (50% retracement) followed by 106.60 (38.2% retracement).

 

RBA minutes Stance of monetary policy consistent with sustainable growth

RBA minutes Stance of monetary policy consistent with sustainable growth

RBA minutes Stance of monetary policy consistent with sustainable growth

  • Buz Traders Alert RBA minutes Stance of monetary policy The minutes of the Sept RBA meeting when interest rates were held unchanged at 1.5% have been released.
  • As the RBA minutes notes: “Taking into account the recent data, and having eased monetary policy at its May and August meetings,
  • the Board judged that the current stance of monetary policy was consistent with sustainable growth in the Australian economy and achieving the inflation target over time.”

RBA minutes Stance of monetary policy not fazed by rising housing prices

RBA minutes Stance of monetary policy consistent with sustainable growth

RBA minutes Stance of monetary policy  On the employment front, the RBA observes: “The unemployment rate had been little changed at around 5¾ per cent over 2016 and employment growth had been steady at around 2 per cent in year-ended terms. Strong growth in part-time employment had been apparent in most states, while full-time employment had fallen in the mining-exposed states. Forward-looking indicators had been consistent with only a slight change in the unemployment rate in coming months. Domestic cost pressures, including wage growth, had remained low and were expected to remain so for some time.”

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It’s unlikely to lower interest rates again soon, but that’s not because it’s worried about over-inflating the housing market.

Average prices for homes on the mainland state capitals have rocketed ahead by eight per cent in the past year, while clearance rates are at 15-month highs.

But the minutes of the RBA’s latest monetary policy meeting, released on Tuesday, show that the central bank is looking below the surface of the numbers.

‘Conditions in established housing markets had generally eased over 2016,’ the RBA said in the minutes of its board’s September 6 meeting.

– See more at: http://www.skynews.com.au/business/business/market/2016/09/20/rba-not-fazed-by-housing-price-rises.html#sthash.Iehuy37n.dpuf