USDCAD – Is it a Bearish Wedge?

USDCAD – Is it a Bearish Wedge?



USDCAD – Is it a Bearish Wedge?

USDCAD – Is it a Bearish Wedge?

recent updates have stated that “USDCAD upside acceleration is feasible (consolidation could destroy both way), specially thinking about the response from 1.2830s. movements off of this rate produced 2 trending movements in 2015.” A fine bias is warranted at the same time as above 1.2834 but be conscious that trade because the can also low could compose a wedge that gives way to the following down leg within a bearish cycle from the January high.

USDJPY short term Outlook and tiers to recognize ahead US NFPs

USDJPY short term Outlook and tiers to recognize ahead US NFPs



USDJPY short term Outlook and tiers to recognize ahead US NFPs

USDJPY short term Outlook and tiers to recognize ahead US NFPs

USDJPY short term The USDJPY is trading sideways across the a hundred and one handle in the remaining couple of buying and selling days after sinking decrease following perceived disappointments from the BOJ monetary policy assertion and the japanese new fiscal stimulus plans.

This brief term sideways congestion places the point of interest firmly on america NPFs later these days for a probable range destroy catalyst
america Non-farm Payrolls take middle stage today. The headline parent is anticipated to reveal 180k growth in payrolls versus the previous big 287k print, and the unemployment determine is predicted to tick down to 4.eight% from the prior four.nine% determine.

The may and June figures noticed a large pass over and beat to expectations respectively. This makes these days’s numbers seem even extra of an unknown. The context, because it pertains to the united states dollar, is probably what the figures may want to imply at the backdrop of Friday’s massive 2Q US GDP sadness.

A large beat to expectancies (preferably with a beat in salary increase as well) would possibly shift sentiment to a more upbeat tone on the usa economy, and seems possibly to send america dollar better.

the opposite seems likely to color a gloomy photograph after Friday’s GDP figures and could potentially ship the us dollar tumbling.

EURUSD to Stage Near Recovery on Poor NFP Report

EURUSD to Stage Near Recovery on Poor NFP Report



EURUSD to Stage Near Recovery on Poor NFP Report

EURUSD to Stage Near Recovery on Poor NFP Report

NFP Report Another 180K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) accompanied by a downtick in the jobless rate may boost the appeal of the greenback and trigger further losses in EURUSD as it puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further normalize monetary policy in 2016.

Even though Fed Funds Futures highlight a 12% probability for a September rate-hike, a further improvement in labor market dynamics may encourage central bank officials to adopt a more hawkish outlook for monetary policy as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment.’ However, an unexpected slowdown in wage growth may keep the FOMC on the sidelines throughout 2016 as the central bank warns ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.’

However, U.S. firms may scale back on hiring amid slowing outputs paired with signs of a weaker-than-expected recovery, and a dismal labor report may drag on the greenback as market participants push out bets for the next Fed rate-hike.

 

Bullish USD Trade: NFP Increases 180K or More, Labor Force Participation Improves

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Investors Forex Market BUZZ 8.4.16

Investors Forex Market BUZZ 8.4.16

Investors Forex Market BUZZ  8.4.16

Investors Forex Market BUZZ 8.4.16

This morning, the greenback is trading higher against most of the major currencies, ahead of US initial jobless claims, durable goods and factory orders data, due to release in a few hours.

The EUR is trading lower against the USD. According to the ECB’s latest economic bulletin report, uncertainty about global economic outlook has increased after Britain decided to leave the European Union (EU) while economic data for the second quarter pointed towards subdued global activity. It also disclosed that measures taken to boost underlying inflation have not yet shown any clear sign of an upward trend.

The GBP is trading lower against the USD with investors keenly waiting the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision. Markets broadly expects the central bank to cut interest rates for the first time in more than seven years to a record low in an effort to limit the impact of UK’s vote to leave the EU. The central bank is also expected to revive its own quantitative easing stimulus package to avoid the threat of a recession following the Brexit vote.

Yesterday, the greenback traded higher in the New York session, against the key currencies, after ADP employment report revealed that private sector in the US added jobs in July, suggesting that the nation’s job growth remained strong. Further, the nation’s final Markit services PMI remained steady in July. On the other hand, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI eased more than expected in the same month.

 

EURUSD

This morning at 09:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.1125 against the USD, 0.18% lower from the New York close. Macroeconomic data indicated that, Germany’s Markit construction PMI advanced in July. This morning, the pair traded at a high of 1.1156 and a low of 1.1123. The Euro traded 0.42% lower against the US Dollar in the New York session yesterday, with the pair closing the session at 1.1145. The pair is expected to its find support at 1.1097 and its first resistance at 1.1179.

 

GBPUSD

At 09:40 GMT, the pair is trading at 1.3286, with the Pound trading 0.23% lower against US Dollar from the New York close. Moving ahead, market participants would keep a close watch on BoE’s interest rate decision, due in some time. The pair witnessed a high of 1.3344 and a low of 1.3277 during the session. Yesterday, the Pound traded 0.09% lower against the US Dollar in the New York session and ended at 1.3317. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 1.3252, while on the upside, the first resistance level is situated at 1.3346.

 

USDJPY

This morning, at 09:40 GMT, the US Dollar is trading at 101.34 against the Yen, 0.09% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 101.66 and a low of 100.84. Yesterday, the US Dollar traded 0.21% higher against the Yen in the New York session and ended at 101.25. The pair is expected to its find support at 100.90 and its first resistance at 101.72.

 

USDCHF

The US Dollar is trading at 0.9742 against the Swiss Franc at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.12% higher from the New York close. In economic news, Switzerland’s SECO consumer confidence index remained steady in 3Q 2016. The pair traded at a high of 0.9749 and a low of 0.9717 this morning. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.52% higher against the CHF in the New York session and ended at 0.9730. The pair is expected to its find support at 0.9694 and its first resistance at 0.9770.

 

USDCAD

The pair is trading at 1.3076 at 09:40 GMT this morning, with the USD trading marginally higher against CAD from the New York close. Amid no economic releases in Canada today, market sentiments would be governed by global events. The pair traded at a high of 1.3088 and a low of 1.3034 this morning. The US Dollar declined against the Canadian Dollar in the New York session yesterday, closing 0.11% lower at 1.3075. The pair is expected to its find support at 1.3028 and its first resistance at 1.3130.

 

AUDUSD

The pair is trading at 0.7612 at 09:40 GMT this morning, with the Australian Dollar trading 0.38% higher against US Dollar from the New York close. Early in the morning, data revealed that Australia’s seasonally adjusted retail sales advanced for a fifth consecutive month, on a monthly basis in June. This morning, the pair traded at a high of 0.7625 and a low of 0.7580. The Australian Dollar traded marginally lower against the US Dollar in the New York session yesterday, with the pair closing the session at 0.7583. The pair is expected to its find support at 0.7577 and its first resistance at 0.7636.

 

Gold

Gold is trading at $1357.20 per ounce at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.51% lower from the New York close. This morning, the precious metal traded at a high of $1365.60 per ounce and a low of $1355.10 per ounce. Yesterday, gold traded 0.42% lower in the New York session and closed at $1364.20 per ounce, amid a stronger US Dollar. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at $1350.40 per ounce, while on the upside, the first resistance level is at $1368.70 per ounce.

 

Silver

The precious metal is trading at $20.22 per ounce at 09:40 GMT this morning, 1% lower from the New York close. During the session, silver traded at a high of $20.48 per ounce and a low of $20.08 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, silver fell 1.02% and closed at $20.43 per ounce. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at $19.96 per ounce, while on the upside, the first resistance level is at $20.61 per ounce.

 

Oil

The commodity is trading at $40.63 per barrel at 09:40 GMT this morning, 1.12% lower from the New York close. Crude oil witnessed a high of $41.41 per barrel and a low of $40.62 per barrel during the session. In the New York session yesterday, crude oil rose 2.91% to close at $41.09 per barrel, after reports showed that US gasoline stocks declined more than expected by 3.3 million barrels. Meanwhile, the EIA disclosed that US crude stockpiles climbed by 1.4 million barrels to 522.7 million barrels during the last week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at $39.41 per barrel, while on the upside, the first resistance level is at $41.63 per barrel.

 

Economic Snapshot

 

Germany’s Markit construction PMI advanced in July

In July, the Markit construction PMI in Germany climbed to 51.60. In the previous month, the construction PMI had recorded a reading of 50.4.

 

Swiss SECO consumer climate steadied in 3Q 2016

The SECO consumer climate in Switzerland remained steady at -15.00 in 3Q 2016, compared to market expectations of a fall to -16.00.

 

Australian retail sales rose less than expected in June

In Australia, the seasonally adjusted retail sales advanced 0.10% on a monthly basis in June, lower than market expectations for a rise of 0.30%. Retail sales had recorded a rise of 0.20% in the previous month.

Australian Retail Sales Rise for Fifth Consecutive Month

Australian Retail Sales Rise for Fifth Consecutive Month

Australian Retail Sales Rise for Fifth Consecutive Month

Australian Retail Sales Rise for Fifth Consecutive Month

Australian retail sales rose for a fifth consecutive month in June, although gains were much slower than expected, reflecting consumer activity amid election season.

Retail sales rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in June, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said in a reporton Thursday. A median estimate of economists forecast retail sales to increase 0.3%.

Sales rose at other cafes and restaurants, clothing stores and department stores, official data showed.

Gains were reported across most regions, including in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia and Tasmania.



Consumer spending is expected to receive a lift after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered interest rates to new all-time lows on Wednesday. It was the second rate cut in four months, as policymakers sought a more aggressive approach to combating deflation.

The Melbourne Institute’s monthly inflation report on Monday showed a sharp decline in consumer prices in July, a sign that the fight against deflation was not over. Consumer prices declined 0.3% from June, the report showed.

Household consumption was a major catalyst behind the economy’s stellar growth in the first quarter. Australia’s gross domestic product grew a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in the first three months of the year and 3.1% annually. That was the fastest increase in three years.

USDJPY Consolidates Ahead of Friday’s NFP Announcement

USDJPY Consolidates Ahead of Friday’s NFP Announcement

USDJPY Consolidates Ahead of Friday’s NFP Announcement

USDJPY Consolidates Ahead of Friday’s NFP Announcement

The USD/JPY has found temporary support above yesterday’s low at 100.67. If prices close below yesterday’s high at 102.83, the USDJPY will close the session creating an inside bar. While using both of these points as a reference, many traders will be looking for a breakout on Friday with the announcement of NFP data for the month of July. Expectations are set at 175k, and any deviation from this expectation may cause US Dollar pairs to react violently.

In the 3-minute graph below, we can see the USDJPY trading lower off of its most recent swing high at 101.57. The Grid Sight Index (GSI) has indicated that short-term momentum has turned lower by highlighting a series of lower lows in the last hour. After reviewing 90,713,988 pricing points, GSI has advanced 16 pips in only 18% of the identified 309 matching historical events. This places today’s first bullish distribution at a price of 101.47. Traders looking for a bullish reversal in the USD/JPY should first look for prices to trade through this point, before testing longer-term values of resistance.



Alternatively, the first bearish distribution is found at 101.23. GSI has indicated that prices have declined eight pips in 61% of the matching 309 historical events. Traders looking for a resumption of the pair’s current downtrend should first watch for price to trade through this value. It should be noted that the final bearish distribution for the day is found at 100.99. GSI has indicated prices have declined 32 pips in just 16% of the historical matches, but a move to this point would open the USD/JPY to testing the previously mentioned point of support at 100.67.

GBPUSD Levels To Watch Ahead of BoE Rate Decision, Inflation Report

GBPUSD Levels To Watch Ahead of BoE Rate Decision, Inflation Report

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GBPUSD Levels The GBPUSD is trading sideways in the last couple of trading days between 1.3350 and 1.3300 after the pair surged higher following Friday’s US 2Q GDP miss.

The pair seems to have problems cracking the 1.3350 resistance, but things could change quickly with the event risk ahead.

All eyes are on the Bank of England in today’s session with the market eager to know how the central bank reacts to the unfolding Brexit situation.



The Bank of England August Rate Decision takes center stage in the hours ahead. The central bank is expected to cut the bank rate to record low 0.25% from the prior 0.50% in an effort to stimulate the economy on fears of a downturn in activity following the Brexit vote. The bank’s Asset Purchase Target is expected to remain unchanged at 375b.

The market is pricing a 100% chance of a rate cut in today’s meeting (according to swaps pricing). If the central bank does indeed cut rates by 25bps, with the market fully anticipating this result, focus might quickly turn to other potential market moving factors (and there are many here).

Contrary to the anticipated rate cut, expectations are only slightly tilted for a hold on a boost to the Asset Purchase Facility (the BoE’s QE programme). This seems likely to catch some participants on the wrong side, with more QE (usually) implying weakness for the currency.

Other measures could include an extension of the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS), but this might have less market moving impact in the short term.

Dollar Rebounds, Risk Trends Avoid Plunge, BoE and NFPs Beckon

Dollar Rebounds, Risk Trends Avoid Plunge, BoE and NFPs Beckon

Dollar Rebounds, Risk Trends Avoid Plunge, BoE and NFPs Beckon

Dollar Rebounds, Risk Trends Avoid Plunge, BoE and NFPs Beckon

A shift in underlying trends for the Dollar and ‘risk’ (equities, emerging market assets, etc) has begun but momentum will require a much stronger push. Financial system quiet is facing more immediate disruption though in impending event risk- most prominently today’s BoE rate decision and Friday’s NFPs. Despite the recent hiccup in activity across the financial system, activity levels are still extraordinarily low. A comprehensive and capable catalyst is needed – whether to forge sentiment (whether optimism or pessimism) or motivate trend for a specific area of the market.




The Sterling is facing critical event risk in the form of the Bank of England (BoE) rate decision and its accompanying Quarterly Inflation report. Already an important event in itself, the policy meeting’s amplitude is bolstered by its Brexit implications. GBP/USD and the Pound plunged in the wake of the vote by the UK to break from the European Union in large part due to the fear of economic fallout and financial trouble resulting from the outcome. The central bank itself contributed to that gloomy outlook before the Brexit. After holding steady in July, expectations for preemptive action to avert economic or financial trouble were diluted. Furthermore, implied volatility around the event grew distorted – overnight projections are very high but a one-week outlook is remarkably quiet. With pain already significantly discounted, the heaviest impact for the Pound would follow promotion of stability in the UK markets…but that can be difficult to achieve for the BoE.

Given the global spillover from the US and Japanese monetary policy changes over the past week, we should monitor the impact that this even has on favored risk benchmarks (mine include S&P 500 and USD/JPY).

Extreme Positioning Ahead Of BOE Points To Risks

Extreme Positioning Ahead Of BOE Points To Risks

Extreme Positioning Ahead Of BOE Points To Risks

Extreme Positioning Ahead Of BOE Points To Risks

There has been a disturbing dislocation in the relationship between rate moves and price action this year with a slew of central banks suffering hard-to-explain, adverse market reactions. Following the BOJ’s historic move into negative rates this year, the JPY was, after an initial spike lower, heavily bid over the ensuing months and continued to attract demand despite BOJ intervention. Similarly, the RBA cut rates in May and despite some initial downside, AUDUSD is now trading above that level. Furthermore, despite an initial reaction lower following their most recent rate cut on August 2nd, again AUDUSD rallied to reverse losses over

o Much Is Already Priced In

The level of expectation in the market is a reflection of the strong guidance given by the BOE at their July meeting where they left little doubt as to the prospect of August easing. Markets are forecasting a 25bps alongside the implementation of additional measures.
Brexit eToro
If the BOE were to cut rates by more than 25bps, this might deliver some fresh GBP downside. However, the message communicated by the BOE over recent times has been one of sincere anxiety around the effectiveness of low rates given their clear ineffectiveness in other regions.

BOE’s Forbes has warned against the cost of easing monetary policy which she says will hit people’s savings, banks profitability and lending activities, as well as the ability of consumers and businesses to get credit.  Carney too has warned against low rates and the hit to bank profitability and credit availability.  With that in mind it seems unlikely that the BOE would opt to move into the Zero bound for rates which leaves the focus on either the utilisation of other measures alongside a rate cut such as an expansion of QE or the bank’s funding for lending scheme, or alternatively a simple 25bps cut accompanied by strong signalling further easing to come.

QE A Complicated Proposition

Whilst some analysts are indeed forecasting that the BOE will expand its QE program by another £50-£75bln we might not see that introduced immediately but perhaps put on ice until the November meeting. Unlike 2008, banks are much better capitalised, and there is no significant strain on financial sector solvency and liquidity arguing the urgent need for gilt purchases, and so maybe another channel such as the bank’s Funding For Lending scheme will appear more appropriate at this stage whilst the bank waits for further post-Brexit data to be assessed.

… (full story)