Gold is expected to trade at 1212.00 USD/t oz. by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 1175.00 in 12 months time.

Gold forecast July 24-28 2017

COMMODITY INVESTORS July 24-28 2017

Gold is expected to trade at 1212.00 USD/t oz. by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 1175.00 in 12 months time.
Gold is expected to trade at 1212.00 USD/t oz. by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 1175.00 in 12 months time.

Gold forecast  Gold markets rallied during the week, slicing through the $1250 level, showing signs of real strength. Currently, I believe that the market is essentially consolidating between the $1200 level on the bottom, and the $1300 level on the top. I think we’re going to continue to reach towards that area, so therefore I am bullish gold and realize that if we have US dollar weakness, the market should continue to favor gold. I think that a break above the $1300 level will be a bit difficult, but as soon as we break above there, I would anticipate that we are going to the $1350 level. This is a market that should be bought on dips, but will be very volatile to say the least. I think that the markets will continue to see choppiness, but longer-term I think will favor the upside.



Gold forecast  

 

Buying dips

I believe in buying dips, but I may have to look towards the short-term charts to find that value. I don’t have any interest in selling unless of course we break down below the $1200 level, which would be very negative. Ultimately, this is a market that is benefiting from the currency markets, and the currency markets are most certainly working against the value of the underlying dollar. I think that the market will eventually make an impulsive move, as we seem to have so much in the way of underlying strength. Gold markets have been choppy, but I think we are simply building up enough momentum to make a move to the upside longer term. If we did breakdown below the $1200 level, I think the market would drop to the $1125 level almost immediately as it would show such a shift in momentum.

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COMMODITIES: (CRUDE OIL) (SILVER) (GOLD)



Crude oil is expected to trade at 46.70 USD/BBL by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 45.30 in 12 months time.

Crude oil forecast July 24-28 2017

COMMODITY INVESTORS Crude oil forecast July 24-28 2017

WTI Crude Oil

Crude oil is expected to trade at 46.70 USD/BBL by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 45.30 in 12 months time.
Crude oil is expected to trade at 46.70 USD/BBL by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 45.30 in 12 months time.

Crude oil forecast The WTI Crude Oil market initially tried to rally during the week, but found enough resistance near the $47.50 level to turn around and form a shooting star. The shooting star is a negative sign, and I believe that we are going to fall from here. In fact, I believe that we will first approach the $45 level, but then breakdown below there and reach towards the $42.50 level after that. I believe that the market is going to continue to find bearish pressure longer-term, and then it’s all but impossible to buy this market from a longer-term perspective. After all, the oversupply of crude oil is a well-known fact, and OPEC has lost the ability to control the market. I believe that although the US dollar is falling, crude oil markets will continue to do so as well.



Crude oil forecast

 

Brent

Brent markets also rally during the week, but found the $50 level to be resistive enough to turn around and form a shooting star. The market looks very likely to drift to the $47.50 level, and then eventually break out to the $45 level after that where I would expect to see a significant amount of support. Ultimately, if we break above the $50 level, that would be a very bullish sign but right now it looks as if we are trying to roll over in a market that has been bearish for some time. Oversupply continues to be a massive issue, and the brick market will fare any different than the WTI Crude Oil market, as traders continue to look at an overall bearish picture longer-term. I think that once we break the $45 level, the market will probably go looking for the $42.50 level.Like up on FACEBOOK


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COMMODITIES: (CRUDE OIL) (SILVER) (GOLD)



The Canadian Dollar is expected to trade at 1.30 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 1.34 in 12 months time.

USDCAD Forecast July 24-28 2017

CURRENCY INVESTORS USDCAD Forecast

The Canadian Dollar is expected to trade at 1.30 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 1.34 in 12 months time.
The Canadian Dollar is expected to trade at 1.30 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 1.34 in 12 months time.

USDCAD Forecast USDCAD continued to lose downside momentum last week. But after all, the down trend still extended. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.2460 low. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, we’ll be cautious on strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.2700 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 1.2968 support turned resistance.



USDCAD Forecast

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. Fall from 1.3793 is seen as the third leg and should target 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we’d look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. However, firm break there will target 100% projection of 1.4689 to 1.2460 from 1.3793 at 1.1564.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is viewed as a long term up trend. It’s taking a breath after hitting 1.4689. But such rise expected to resume later to test 1.6196 down the road. But firm break of 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048 will raise doubt over this view.

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major currencies: (EUR-USD) (USD-JPY) (USD-GBP) (USD-CHF), (USD-CAD), (AUD-USD) (USDCNY)



The Swiss Franc is expected to trade at 0.98 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 1.01 in 12 months time.

USDCHF Forecast July 24-28 2017

CURRENCY INVESTORS USDCHF Forecast

The Swiss Franc is expected to trade at 0.98 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 1.01 in 12 months time.
The Swiss Franc is expected to trade at 0.98 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 1.01 in 12 months time.

USDCHF Forecast USDCHF’s fall accelerated to as low as 0.9437 last week and breached 0.9443 key support. There is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias remains on the downside. Firm break of 0.9443 key support will extend the down trend from 1.0342 to 161.8% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9860 from 1.0099 at 0.9319. On the upside, above 0.9521 minor resistance will turn bias neutral. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9699 resistance holds.



USDCHF Forecast

 

In the bigger picture, focus is now back 0.9443 key support level. Sustained break there indicate underlying bearish momentum and would target 0.9 handle and possibly below. Meanwhile, strong rebound from current level and break 0.9699 resistance will extend long term range trading between 0.9443/1.0342.

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major currencies: (EUR-USD) (USD-JPY) (USD-GBP) (USD-CHF), (USD-CAD), (AUD-USD) (USDCNY)



The Japanese Yen is expected to trade at 114.00 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 118.00 in 12 months time.

USDJPY Forecast July 24-28 2017

CURRENCY INVESTORS USDJPY Forecast

The Japanese Yen is expected to trade at 114.00 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 118.00 in 12 months time.

USDJPY Forecast The US dollar fell significantly during the Friday session against the Japanese yen, slicing below the 111.50 level. Because of this, the market then fell towards the 111 handle, which of course has a certain amount of psychological significance. However, I believe that the real support is probably closer to the 110 handle, so rallies of this point in time should be and I selling opportunity. The 110 level will be massively supportive as it is a large, round, psychologically significant number, but given enough time I think that we do need to test the that area first. This pair does tend to be somewhat risk sensitive, but I think a lot of this comes down to what the Federal Reserve is doing.



USDJPY Forecast

Federal Reserve expectations

From traders around the world, they are starting to expect the Federal Reserve to be very slow to raise interest rates. Janet Yellen does a lot to boost that case as she spoke in front of Congress recently, suggesting that perhaps things would be data dependent yet again, but if the Federal Reserve looks likely to hike rates just as quickly as once thought, that will turn this market around completely. It looks to me as if the 110 level is an excellent area to find support, so I would anticipate a bit of bullish pressure in that area, and that will be supercharged by any statements coming out of her or major players coming out of the Federal Reserve. I think that the market is probably going to be bearish for the next several sessions, but the downward pressure is probably somewhat limited as far as where it can go. If we break down below the 109 level, then I think we fall apart completely.

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major currencies: (EUR-USD) (USD-JPY) (USD-GBP) (USD-CHF), (USD-CAD), (AUD-USD) (USDCNY)



GBPUSD Forecast The GBP/USD pair continued losing ground on Thursday and broke below the key 1.30 psychological mark to touch one-week lows near 1.2935-30 region

GBPUSD Forecast July 24-28 2017

CURRENCY INVESTORS GBPUSD Forecast

GBPUSD Forecast The GBP/USD pair continued losing ground on Thursday and broke below the key 1.30 psychological mark to touch one-week lows near 1.2935-30 region

GBPUSD Forecast The GBP/USD pair continued losing ground on Thursday and broke below the key 1.30 psychological mark to touch one-week lows near 1.2935-30 region despite upbeat UK Retail Sales data. The figures for June bettered expectations and showed a growth of 0.6% m-o-m as against a sharp decline of 1.2% recorded in the previous month. A fresh wave of US Dollar selling pressure helped the pair to bounce off 20-day SMA support and recover around 40-45 pips from lows.

The pair now seems to have entered a bearish consolidation phase and oscillated in a narrow trading range around 1.2970-65 band through Asian session on the last trading day of the week. Today’s economic docket lacks any major market moving releases and against the backdrop of growing consensus that the BOE won’t raise rates anytime soon, the pair remains poised to extend the corrective slide from 10-month highs touched on Tuesday.



GBPUSD Forecast

 

From a technical perspective, sustained weakness below 20-day SMA, currently near 1.2945-40 region, leading to a subsequent drop below 1.2920 level (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2589-1.3126 recent upswing), would reinforce the near-term bearish bias and accelerate the slide towards 50% Fibonacci retracement level support near 1.2855 zone en-route monthly lows support near 1.2810 area.

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major currencies: (EUR-USD) (USD-JPY) (USD-GBP) (USD-CHF), (USD-CAD), (AUD-USD) (USDCNY)



EURUSD Forecast EURUSD had an excellent week, breaking to much higher ground. The upcoming week features a mix of PMIs, GDP, and inflation figures.

EURUSD Forecast July 24-28 2017

CURRENCY INVESTORS EURUSD Forecast

EURUSD Forecast EURUSD had an excellent week, breaking to much higher ground. The upcoming week features a mix of PMIs, GDP, and inflation figures.

EURUSD Forecast EURUSD had an excellent week, breaking to much higher ground. The upcoming week features a mix of PMIs, GDP, and inflation figures. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

ECB President Mario Draghi did his best to sound balanced and even dovish, but markets didn’t buy it. He did say that they will discuss the next steps in the Autumn, and that was enough for markets to see tapering. The final inflation figures confirmed the original ones. In the US, the failure to pass a health bill triggered a fresh wave of dollar selling. The revelation that Special Counsel Mueller is expanding his investigation into Trump’s business dealingsexacerbated the sell-off.



EURUSD Forecast

 

  1. Flash PMIs: Monday morning: 7:00 for France, 7:30 for Germany and 8:00 for the euro-zone. In June, French manufacturing PMI stood at 54.8 according to the final figure. Any score above 50 reflects expansion. A score of 54.6 is on the cards now. The services sector had a better score of 56.9 points and a slide to 56.6 is predicted. In Germany, manufacturing reached very high levels, at 59.6. It is forecast to slip to 59.1. Services lagged behind with 54 points and a tick up to 54.4 is estimated. For the whole euro-zone, a score of 57.4 was reported for manufacturing and 55.4 for services. Scores of 57.3 and 55.5 points are expected for manufacturing and services respectively.
  2. German Bundesbank Report: Monday, 10:00. The German central bank, also known as the Bundesbank or Buba, publishes a monthly assessment of the economy. Growth has been satisfactory in Germany and unemployment is low. Optimism from the team led by Jens Weidmann could imply an upbeat growth rate.
  3. German Import Prices: Tuesday, 6:00. Prices of imported goods, such as energy in Germany’s case, eventually reach consumer prices, but tend to be quite volatile. A drop of 1% was seen in May. A slide of 0.6% is projected.
  4. German Ifo Business Climate: Tuesday, 8:00. Germany’s No. 1 Think Tank has been reporting improvements in business confidence. In June, the score reached 115.1 points. A minor slide to 114.9 is predicted.
  5. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Tuesday, 13:00. This wide survey got very close to 0 from the bottom but failed to top it last month. The score disappointed with -2 points for June, reflecting a deteriorating situation. A very similar score of 1.9 is on the cards.
  6. Spanish Unemployment Rate: Thursday, 7:00. The fourth-largest economy in the euro-zone still suffers from a high level of unemployment, despite the recovery. It bounced back up to 18.8% in Q1, and an improvement is likely for Q2 2017. A slide to 17.9% is on the cards.
  7. German GfK Consumer Climate: Thursday, 7:00. Similar to business confidence, also consumer confidence is on the rise, reaching 10.6 points in June. Will it continue rising? While the German exports machine continues humming along, consumers are not spending very heavily. A repeat of the 10.6 score is projected.
  8. Monetary data: Thursday, 8:00. M3 Money Supply, or the money in circulation, has been at a robust 5% in May. Private loans accelerated to a level of 2.6% and could now continue rising. More money and loans mean more economic activity and a potential for higher inflation. Money Supply is expected to rise by 5% y/y again while the levels of loans are expected to accelerate to 2.7%.
  9. French GDP: Friday, 5:30. The second-largest economy in the euro-zone enjoyed a solid growth rate of 0.5% according to the final read for Q1 2017. We now get the first estimate for Q2 2017. The same growth rate of 0.5% is on the cards.
  10. French CPI: Friday, 6:45. In June, month over month prices remained flat in France, as widely expected. The figure feeds into the all-European measure. Note that France releases its consumer spending measure at the same time, but inflation has a more significant impact. This time, a slide of 0.4% m/m is on the cards.
  11. Spanish CPI: Friday, 7:00. Spain saw inflation rising from the deep deflationary levels to 3% but it fell quickly back to 1.5% y/y in June. We now get the preliminary rate for July. A repeat of 1.5% is expected.
  12. Spanish GDP: Friday, 7:00. Among the continent’s large economies, Spain enjoys persistently high growth. Quarterly growth of no less than 0.8% was seen in Q1 and an even better figure could be seen for Q2: 0.9%.
  13. German CPI: Friday, the states release the numbers throughout the morning and the all-German figure is published at 12:00. Consumer prices rose by 0.2% m/m in Germany in June, beating expectations and eventually pushing the all-European inflation higher. Another monthly rise of 0.2% is expected.

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major currencies: (EUR-USD) (USD-JPY) (USD-GBP) (USD-CHF), (USD-CAD), (AUD-USD) (USDCNY)



AUDUSD Forecast  AUDUSD enjoyed another strong week, gaining 90 points. The pair closed at 0.7912, its

AUDUSD Forecast July 24-28 2017

CURRENCY INVESTORS  AUDUSD Forecast

AUDUSD Forecast  AUDUSD enjoyed another strong week, gaining 90 points. The pair closed at 0.7912, its


AUDUSD Forecast  AUDUSD enjoyed another strong week, gaining 90 points. The pair closed at 0.7912, its highest weekly close since December 2014. The major event this week is CPI. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

In Australia, employment gains slowed, but were still close to the estimate. Over in the US, political risk continues to rise, as Trump’s failure to pass a healthcare bill triggered a fresh wave of US dollar selling. The revelation that Special Counsel Mueller is expanding his investigation into Trump’s business dealings also contributed to the greenback’s losses.



AUDUSD Forecast

 

 

  1. CPI: Wednesday, 1:30. CPI is the primary gauge of consumer spending, and an unexpected reading can have a sharp impact on the movement of AUD/USD. In Q1, the index remained unchanged at 0.5%, just below the estimate of 0.6%. The estimate for Q2 stands at 0.4%.
  2. Trimmed Mean CPI: Wednesday, 1:30. This indicator excludes the most volatile items which comprise CPI. The index improved to 0.5% in Q1, matching the forecast. Another reading of 0.5% is expected in Q2.
  3. RBA Governor Philip Lowe Speaks: Wednesday, 3:05. Lowe will speak at an event in Sydney. The markets will be looking for clues regarding the RBA’s future monetary policy.
  4. Import Prices: Thursday, 1:30. Import Prices rebounded in Q1 with a strong gain of 1.2%, crushing the estimate of -0.4%. This marked the highest gain since 2015. The estimate for Q2 is 0.7%.
  5. PPI: Friday, 1:30. This inflation level is released on a quarterly basis. The indicator was unchanged in Q1, recording a gain of 0.5%. This was above the forecast of 0.3%. The markets are expecting another gain in the second quarter, with a forecast of 0.6%.

 

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major currencies: (EUR-USD) (USD-JPY) (USD-GBP) (USD-CHF), (USD-CAD), (AUD-USD) (USDCNY)



Buz Investors Gold vs Bitcoin Bitcoin prices have officially outpaced gold prices per ounce for the first time in the currency’s history. With the bitcoin price in 2017 trading above gold prices, you have a day that cryptocurrency

US Dollar Bitcoin – Forecast

US Dollar Bitcoin – Forecast

Currency T+1
USDBTC

Usdbtc

  • Bitcoin price after a strong correction found support at $2040 against the US Dollar, and started a recovery.
  • There is a monster ascending channel forming with support at $2260 on the 4-hours chart of BTC/USD (data feed from SimpleFX).
  • The price may soon gain momentum and break $2700 for a move towards the last swing high at $2970.





 

US Dollar Bitcoin

Bitcoin price corrected lower from $2970 against the US Dollar, and now BTC/USD is back above $2400 and looking for a move towards $3000.

In the last weekly analysis, I highlighted the chances of Bitcoin price moving towards $3000 against the US Dollar. The price did break $2880 and moved towards $3000. However, there was no complete test of $3000, as the price traded as high as $2970. Sellers appeared and ignited a downside move below $2900. A correction wave started and the price fell sharply below the $2500 and $2300 supports.

|Chart | Calendar   | TRADE NOW | FORCAST | cryptocurrency 

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