FOREX INVESTORS BUZZ WORD MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS 7.21.17
A DAILY SOCIAL TRADING EVENT
FOREX INVESTORS BUZZ MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS 7.21.17 This morning, the greenback is trading lower against most of the major currencies.
The EUR is trading higher against the USD, amid growing expectations of a policy shift by the European Central Bank (ECB) in the near-term after the ECB Chief, Mario Draghi, hinted that that central bank will consider withdrawing its ultra-loose monetary policy in the autumn. Yesterday, the ECB, at its latest monetary policy meeting, unanimously voted to hold interest rates at 0.00% and maintained a pledge to extend or even increase debt purchases if deemed necessary. Further, the ECB President, Mario Draghi emphasized the need for patience and persistence to allow inflation to get back to the central bank’s target. Separately, consumer confidence in the Eurozone surprisingly worsened in July.
The GBP is trading higher against the USD. Data indicated that Britain’s public sector net borrowing posted a more-than-expected deficit in June.
Yesterday, the greenback traded lower in the New York session, against the key currencies, on reports that the Special Counsel, Robert Mueller, who is investigating possible collusion between Trump’s campaign and Russian Government, is expanding his inquiry into the US President, Donald Trump’s business affairs.
Separately, data indicated that the number of Americans filing for fresh jobless claims declined to a nearly 5-month low level last week, offering signs of enduring labor market growth in the world’s largest economy. Further, the nation’s leading indicator exceeded market expectations in June. On the other hand, manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia region deteriorated to an 8-month low in July.
WORD MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS 7.21.17
This morning at 09:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.1647 against the USD, 0.1% higher from the New York close. Amid no economic releases in the Eurozone today, investors will focus on the flash Markit manufacturing and services PMIs data across the Eurozone, slated to release next week. This morning, the pair traded at a high of 1.1677 and a low of 1.1619. The Euro traded 0.6% higher against the US Dollar in the New York session yesterday, with the pair closing the session at 1.1635, after the ECB President stated that officials would debate on changes in bond purchases this autumn. The pair is expected to its find support at 1.1525 and its first resistance at 1.1723.
EUR/USD’s rise resumed after briefly consolidation and broke 1.1615 key resistance. Intraday bias is back to the upside. Sustained trading above 1.1615 will extend the medium term rise to 1.2 handle next. On the downside, break of 1.1478 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, the firm break of 1.1298 resistance further affirm medium term reversal. That is, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Further rise would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.1756). Sustained break there will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1118 support holds.
At 09:40 GMT, the pair is trading at 1.3005, with the Pound trading 0.25% higher against US Dollar from the New York close. On the macro front, Britain’s public sector net borrowing posted a more-than-expected deficit in June. The pair witnessed a high of 1.3008 and a low of 1.2954 during the session. Yesterday, the Pound traded marginally higher against the US Dollar in the New York session and ended at 1.2972. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 1.2956, while on the upside, the first resistance level is situated at 1.3031.
GBP/USD is still staying in range of 1.2811/3125 and intraday bias remains neutral. Another rise is mildly in favor with 1.2811 intact. Break of 1.3125 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2108 to 1.3047 from 1.2588 at 1.3168. Overall, choppy rebound from 1.1946 is seen as a corrective pattern, hence, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.3168 to limit upside. But firm break of 1.3168 will bring further rise towards 1.3444 key resistance. Meanwhile, break of 1.2811 support will be the first sign of reversal and will turn bias to the downside to target 1.2588 key support next.
In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a corrective pattern that is still in progress. While further upside is expected, overall outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3444 key resistance holds. Larger down trend from 1.7190 is expected to resume later after the correction completes. And break of 1.2588 will indicate that such down trend is resuming.
This morning, at 09:40 GMT, the US Dollar is trading at 111.70 against the Yen, 0.13% lower from the New York close. Going forward, Japan’s jobless rate and national consumer price index, both slated to release next week, will be on investors’ radar. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 112.08 and a low of 111.67. Yesterday, the US Dollar traded 0.34% lower against the Yen in the New York session and ended at 111.84. The pair is expected to its find support at 111.32 and its first resistance at 112.25.
Breach of 111.54 suggests that fall from 114.49 is resuming. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper decline to 108.81 support. Break there will extend the whole correction from 118.65 to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 112.41 will turn focus back to 114.49 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.
The US Dollar is trading at 0.9504 against the Swiss Franc at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.07% lower from the New York close. The pair traded at a high of 0.9523 and a low of 0.9493 this morning. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.59% lower against the CHF in the New York session and ended at 0.9511. The pair is expected to its find support at 0.9457 and its first resistance at 0.9586.
USD/CHF’s decline resumed after brief consolidation and intraday bias is turned back to the downside. Current fall from 1.0342 should target target 0.9443 key support level next. At this point, we’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.9699 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, USD/CHF is still bounded in medium term range of 0.9443/1.0342 for the moment. Consolidative trading would likely continue and medium term outlook remains neutral. Break of 1.0342 key resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullish momentum in the pair. Meanwhile, downside attempts should be contained by 0.9443 key support level. However, sustained break of 0.9443 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.9 handle.
The pair is trading at 1.2576 at 09:40 GMT this morning, with the USD trading 0.1% lower against CAD from the New York close. Looking ahead, market participants will keep a close watch on Canada’s inflation and retail sales data, due to release in a few hours. The pair traded at a high of 1.2605 and a low of 1.2571 this morning. The US Dollar declined against the Canadian Dollar in the New York session yesterday, closing 0.2% lower at 1.2589. The pair is expected to its find support at 1.2531 and its first resistance at 1.2631.
With 1.2700 minor resistance intact, intraday bias stays on the downside. Current fall from 1.3793 should extend to retest 1.2460 low. Meanwhile, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.2700 will indicate short term bottoming In such case, there will be lengthier consolidation before staging another decline.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. Fall from 1.3793 is seen as the third leg and should target 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we’d look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. However, firm break there will target 100% projection of 1.4689 to 1.2460 from 1.3793 at 1.1564.
The pair is trading at 0.7926 at 09:40 GMT this morning, with the Australian Dollar trading 0.39% lower against US Dollar from the New York close. This morning, the pair traded at a high of 0.7958 and a low of 0.7875. The Australian Dollar traded 0.35% higher against the US Dollar in the New York session yesterday, with the pair closing the session at 0.7957. The pair is expected to its find support at 0.7878 and its first resistance at 0.7972.
AUD/USD’s retreat suggests that a temporary top is formed at 0.7988 after hitting 61.8% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.7950. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidation. Near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.7785 support holds and another rise is expected. Break of 0.7988 will target 100% projection at 0.8335 next.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rise. There is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, further rise is now expected to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8100) or even further to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now expected.
Gold is trading at $1253.60 per ounce at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.26% higher from the New York close. This morning, the precious metal traded at a high of $1254.40 per ounce and a low of $1249.50 per ounce. Yesterday, gold traded 0.24% higher in the New York session and closed at $1250.30 per ounce, amid a broad weakness in the greenback. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at $1245.27 per ounce, while on the upside, the first resistance level is at $1258.17 per ounce.
The precious metal is trading at $16.36 per ounce at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.43% higher from the New York close. During the session, silver traded at a high of $16.39 per ounce and a low of $16.28 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, silver rose 0.06% and closed at $16.29 per ounce, tracking gains in gold prices. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at $16.18 per ounce, while on the upside, the first resistance level is at $16.47 per ounce.
The commodity is trading at $47.10 per barrel at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.41% higher from the New York close. Crude oil witnessed a high of $47.21 per barrel and a low of $46.85 per barrel during the session. In the New York session yesterday, crude oil fell 1.55% to close at $46.91 per barrel, as investors remain grappled with concerns over persistent global supply glut. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at $46.69 per barrel, while on the upside, the first resistance level is at $47.62 per barrel.
Saudi Arabia is making good on promises to curtail oil shipments to the United States with the likely intention to drain visible inventories and support prices.
Imports from Saudi Arabia averaged just 810,000 bpd over the last four weeks, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the slowest rate since January 2015.
MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS 7.21.17
In the UK, the public sector net borrowing has posted a deficit £6.30 billion in June, following a revised deficit of £6.40 billion in the prior month. Markets were anticipating public sector net borrowing to announce a deficit of £4.20 billion.
The flash consumer confidence index in the Eurozone unexpectedly fell to a level of -1.70 in July. The consumer confidence index had registered a reading of -1.30 in the previous month, while markets expected for an advance to -1.20.
The European Central Bank held its key interest rate steady at 0.00%. Markets were anticipating the central bank to maintain its key interest rate at 0.00%.