“Reflation” Is Officially Dead: Core CPI Tumbles For The First Time In Over Seven Years
BUZ INVESTORS Core CPI Tumbles The reflation trade is officially over. At the same time that retail sales posted the worst 2 month drop in 2 years, CPI – the bedrock behind the Fed’s rate hiking intentions – just hit a brick wall, and after months of headline CPI growth mostly the back of the energy “base effect”, in March this ended with a thud, when headline CPI printed at -0.3%, badly missing expectations of an unchanged print. The number was so bad, all 79 economist estimates missed the number (predicting a -0.2% low). The biggest driver for the headline plunge was energy, which declined 3.2%, with the gasoline index falling 6.2%, and other major energy
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Core CPI Tumbles
Among the core components, the shelter index rose 0.1 percent, and the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, medical care, tobacco, airline fares, and alcoholic beverages also increased in March. These increases were offset by declines in several indexes, including those for wireless telephone services, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and apparel.
More details from the report that will likely assure that Yellen will not be hiking rates for a long time:
The index for all items less food and energy declined 0.1 percent in March. The index for communication fell 3.5 percent as the index for wireless telephone services decreased 7.0 percent, the largest 1-month decline in the history of the index. The index for used cars and trucks continued to fall, declining 0.9 percent in March, and the new vehicles index decreased 0.3 percent. The apparel index declined 0.7 percent in March after rising 0.6 percent in February.