Buz Investors Oil Shorts I had a lighthearted conversation with a colleague not so long ago, asking if they feel they might have an irrational bias toward shorting oil, simply because the flow on effect will mean cheaper petrol when they go to fill up their cars later on.

Oil Shorts in Play or an Irrational Bias for Cheap Petrol?

Oil Shorts in Play or an Irrational Bias for Cheap Petrol?

Buz Investors Oil Shorts I had a lighthearted conversation with a colleague not so long ago, asking if they feel they might have an irrational bias toward shorting oil, simply because the flow on effect will mean cheaper petrol when they go to fill up their cars later on.

Buz Investors Oil Shorts I had a lighthearted conversation with a colleague not so long ago, asking if they feel they might have an irrational bias toward shorting oil, simply because the flow on effect will mean cheaper petrol when they go to fill up their cars later on. I honestly feel I might have this! Am I alone here? Surely not. Well, now we’ve got that little disclaimer out of the way, lets have a look at some oil charts. We’ve been watching this oil resistance zone that we can see on the weekly below. Price has rejected out of the zone and we’ve seen some follow through, which has brought us down to retest the upper side of this bearish



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Oil Shorts

Price has rejected out of the zone and we’ve seen some follow through, which has brought us down to retest the upper side of this bearish trend line, this time as possible support.

Oil Daily:
160313_oil_daily
Click on chart to see a larger view.

This is the level that’s in play, but seeing as though the higher time frame horizontal support has held and we’ve seen the follow through from sellers that we have, I am inclined to play oil from the short side.




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Buz Investors EURUSD Marginally Higher A very light economic calendar and some easing political concerns are resulting in a modest gain in EUR/USD in today’s trading. The pair is currently at 1.0619, up 0.10% over Friday’s close.

$EURUSD returns to the neutral bias

EURUSD returns to the neutral bias

Buz Investors neutral bias This morning at 10:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.0590 against the USD, 0.1% higher from the New York close.

EURUSD

Buz Investors neutral bias This morning at 10:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.0590 against the USD, 0.1% higher from the New York close. In economic news, data indicated that French consumer confidence index remained steady in February. This morning, the pair traded at a high of 1.0603 and a low of 1.0568. The Euro traded 0.14% higher against the US Dollar in the New York session yesterday, with the pair closing the session at 1.0579. The pair is expected to its find support at 1.0551 and its first resistance at 1.0616.



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neutral bias

 French consumer confidence index remained steady in February

EURUSD “Opinion polls advocate centrist candidate Macron has derived a few extra guide from his election p.c. with leftist Bayrou but concerns around the French presidential election outcome are probably to stay expanded via the vote itself, considering how poorly opinion polls have tracked underlying voter sentiment someplace else these days”.

“in the meantime, terrible nominal, brief-term yields near 1% for core EZ bonds constitute a substantial essential bad for the EUR from our angle. We stay bearish EURUSD”.

“EURUSD seems a bit steadier at the chart after the mid-week leap from the 1.05 vicinity. every day profits through Thursday seem to have “showed” a low in location and the marketplace is trying out the 55-day MA inside the low 1.06 place at writing in which good selling hobby emerged earlier in eu trade. We see resistance at 1.0605/10 on the consultation”.

 



major currencies: (EUR-USD) (USD-JPY) (USD-GBP) (USD-CHF), (USD-CAD), (AUD-USD)




USDCHF Clawing Back Following Monday’s Break

$USDCHF positive bias unchanged

USDCHF positive bias unchanged

Buz Investors USDCHF positive bias The US Dollar is trading at 1.0094 against the Swiss Franc at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.39% higher from the New York close

USDCHF

Buz Investors USDCHF positive bias The US Dollar is trading at 1.0094 against the Swiss Franc at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.39% higher from the New York close. With no economic releases in Switzerland today, investors will look forward to global events for further direction. The pair traded at a high of 1.0097 and a low of 1.0053 this morning. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.17% higher against the CHF in the New York session and ended at 1.0055. The pair is expected to its find support at 1.0049 and its first resistance at 1.0118.



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USDCHF positive bias

 “USD/CHF crept higher leaving our effective bias unchanged. We view the market as having primarily based on the .9861 low. We suspect that the marketplace has turned on the 200 day ma and the fifty five week ma at .9890/60 and that that is an meantime low. Intraday we be aware the thirteen assume the 60 minute chart and could permit for mild slippage to at least one.00 beforehand of the following push better”.

“at the same time as above 1.00/.9970 we would count on it to generate a few upside hobby to one.0248 eleventh January high and the 1.0328 2015 and 1.0344 December 2016 highs”.



major currencies: (EUR-USD) (USD-JPY) (USD-GBP) (USD-CHF), (USD-CAD), (AUD-USD)




USDCHF hanging on the Edge of the ledge

USDCHF bias is turned neutral

USDCHF bias is turned neutral

USD-CHF

  • Buz Investors USDCHF bias is turned neutral The US Dollar is trading at 1.0098 against the Swiss Franc at 10:40 GMT this morning, marginally higher from the New York close.
  • Looking ahead, investors’ will eye Switzerland’s trade balance figures, scheduled to release tomorrow. The pair traded at a high of 1.0116 and a low of 1.0072 this morning. On Friday,
  • the USD traded 0.3% higher against the CHF in the New York session and ended at 1.0094. The pair is expected to its find support at 1.0061 and its first resistance at 1.0130.

USDCHF bias is turned neutral

USDCHF bias is turned neutral

USDCHF bias is turned neutral A temporary top is in place at 1.0122 in USD/CHF and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidations would be seen but downside should be contained by 0.9938 support. The correction from 1.0327 should have completed at 0.9443 too. Above 1.0122 will extend the rise from 0.9443 to retest 1.0327 high.

In the bigger picture, the corrective fall from 1.0327 should have completed at 0.9443 already. Rise from 0.9443 could be resuming the long term rally from 2011 low at 0.7065.

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USDCHF bias is turned neutral 

But decisive break of 1.0327 is needed to confirm. In that case, next medium term upside target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359. Rejection from 1.0327 will extend the sideway pattern with another fall. We’ll assess the chance of breakout at a later stage based on near term momentum.

As a result of the recent gains, USD/CHF is now testing resistance at the high established in late February. This test of resistance, combined with the persistent overbought condition which has been an issue since mid-November, suggested a period of correction or consolidation could play out is this week’s trading. However, given the ongoing strength in the dollar, pullbacks in USD/CHF appear best used as buying opportunities in anticipation of an eventual sustained break above the February high and followed through to the next level of resistance at the late January peak at 1.02564.

First support for the pair is at the lows established Wednesday-Thursday of last week at the 0.99920-0.99790 zone. These lows represent tests of the high established in late October. Holding this level on a pullback would keep the bias in USD/CHF firmly to the upside.




USDJPY short term Outlook and tiers to recognize ahead US NFPs

USDJPY Upward Bias On Manufacturing Stats

USDJPY Upward Bias On Manufacturing Stats

USD-JPY

  • Buz Traders Take Note USDJPY Upward Bias At 09:40 GMT, the pair is trading at 101.38, with the US Dollar trading slightly higher against Yen from the New York close.
  • Earlier today, data showed that Japan’s final Nikkei manufacturing PMI rose in September. The USD hit a high of 101.61 and a low of 101.19 against the JPY during the session.
  • On Friday, the US Dollar traded 0.17% higher against the Yen in the New York session and ended at 101.36. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 101.0633, while on the upside, the first resistance level is situated at 101.6533.

USDJPY Upward Bia off the last week’s lows

USDJPY Upward Bias On Manufacturing Stats

USDJPY Upward Bias Strong GDP figures weren’t enough to raise bets of a December Fed hike for long, although it was Japanese Yen strength that weakened the USD JPY exchange rate during last week.

The US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USD JPY) exchange rate continued its attempts to advance during Monday’s American session, trending with an upward bias thanks to better-than-expected US Manufacturing data.

Markit’s final September Manufacturing score beat preliminary results of 51.4, by scoring 51.5. ISM’s Manufacturing print also scored 51.5. These scores helped USD JPY edge nearer to 102.00.

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The pair pushed off the lows of last week around ¥100, and the uptrend so far remains intact. Now it has to move on beyond ¥101.80, which would clear the way to ¥102.40.

Dips on Thursday and Friday were met by buying at ¥100.80, so this is the first area to watch for support, with ¥100 below it. So long as ¥100 holds, it is hard to escape the impression a bottoming process is underway here after a steady decline thus far in the year.

USDJPY short term Outlook and tiers to recognize ahead US NFPs

USDJPY Neutral bias, likely limited by 104.00

USDJPY Neutral bias, likely limited by 104.00

USD-JPY

  • Buz Traders Are waiting watching USDJPY Neutral bias This morning, at 09:40 GMT, the US Dollar is trading at 102.39 against the Yen, marginally higher from the New York close.
  • During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.61 and a low of 101.92. Yesterday, the US Dollar traded 0.4% lower against the Yen in the New York session and ended at 102.34.
  • The pair is expected to its find support at 101.88 and its first resistance at 102.93.

USDJPY Neutral bias “Ahead of the monetary policy meetings of the BoJ

USDJPY Neutral bias, likely limited by 104.00

USDJPY Neutral bias  Analysts from The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, have a neutral bias for the USD/JPY pair for the next week and expect it to trade between 101.00-104.00.

Key Quotes:

“Ahead of the monetary policy meetings of the BoJ and the Fed on 20th -21st September, the topside of USD/JPY has been heavy. The JPY yield curve has been steepening, short-term JPY yields have been dropping and long-term yields have been picking up. However USD/JPY has not risen yet.”

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“The global monetary environment is so accommodative that the major central banks’ policy divergence and yield differences may not support JPY depreciation. Japanese investors might remain calm so close to the end of the fiscal half year. JPY selling pressure may not grow any stronger at this stage. JPY purchasing by exporters could limit the rise of USD/JPY to about 104

As highlighted yesterday, despite the positive undertone, USD has to close above the 103.30 resistance before further up-move can be expected. The build-up in momentum fizzled out quickly with the sharp drop from the high of 103.34. The outlook from here is still viewed as neutral but USD has likely moved back into a broad sideway trading range of 101.20/103.30.

 

USDCHF sets as much as Dip lower On Its way Up

Intraday bias in USDCHF remains mildly upside for upper side




Intraday bias in USDCHF remains mildly upside for upper side

USD-CHF

  • The USD is trading at 0.9659 against the CHF at 09:40 GMT, 0.25% lower from the New York close.
  • Amid no economic releases in Switzerland today, investor sentiment would be governed by global events. During the session,
  • the pair traded at a high of 0.9686 and a low of 0.9644. Yesterday, the US Dollar traded 0.28% higher against the Swiss Franc in the New York session and ended at 0.9683. The pair is expected to its find support at 0.9634 and its first resistance at 0.9686.

USDCHF Mid-Day Outlook

Intraday bias in USDCHF remains mildly upside for upper side

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the upside for upper side of recent range near to 0.9949/55. But break there is needed to confirm completion of the fall from 1.0327. Otherwise, such decline is mildly in favor to resume for 0.9443 and below. On the downside, below 0.9593 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.9536 support first.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that choppy fall from 1.0327 is seen as a corrective move. Rejection from 0.9955 resistance suggests that it’s still in progress for another low below 0.9443. In that case, we’d expect strong support between 0.9072 and 0.9256 support to contain downside and finally bring reversal. Break of 0.9955 will target a test on 1.0327 high again.

 

USDCHF sets as much as Dip lower On Its way Up

USDCHF Intraday bias Swiss Franc stays neutral



USDCHF Intraday bias Swiss Franc stays neutral

USD-CHF Consolidating with a Lack of Directional Bias

USDCHF Intraday bias Swiss Franc stays neutral

USD-CHF

Swiss Franc stays neutral The US Dollar is trading at 0.9740 against the Swiss Franc at 09:40 GMT this morning, marginally lower from the New York close. On the data front, Switzerland’s producer and import price index fell less than expected on a monthly basis in July. The pair traded at a high of 0.9758 and a low of 0.9735 this morning. On Friday, the USD traded 0.32% higher against the CHF in the New York session and ended at 0.9745. The pair is expected to its find support at 0.9707 and its first resistance at 0.9769.

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Price actions from 0.9443 low are forming a consolidation pattern. And that means, decline from 1.0327 isn’t over yet. Break of 0.96321 will target 0.9520 support next. Break will affirm this bearish case and target 0.9443 and below. On the upside above 0.9842 will bias back to the upside for 0.9949/9520 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that choppy fall from 1.0327 is seen as a corrective move. Rejection from 0.9955 resistance suggests that it’s still in progress for another low below 0.9443. In that case, we’d expect strong support between 0.9072 and 0.9256 support to contain downside and finally bring reversal. Break of 0.9955 will target a test on 1.0327 high again

Chile Central Bank Holds Key Rate, Removes Tightening Bias

Chile Central Bank Holds Key Rate, Removes Tightening Bias

Chile Central Bank Holds Key Rate, Removes Tightening Bias

Chile Central Bank Holds Key Rate, Removes Tightening Bias

Chile’s central bank left its key interest rate unchanged for the eighth consecutive month and removed its tightening bias as inflation fell within its target range and economists forecast the first economic contraction in six years. Policy makers, led by bank President Rodrigo Vergara, kept the key rate at 3.5 percent on Thursday, as forecast by all 26 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. In a statement accompanying the decision, the central bank removed wording that referred to the potential normalization of rates to slow inflation, merely saying that it remained committed to a “flexible” monetary policy to achieve its goal of 3
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In a statement accompanying the decision, the central bank removed wording that referred to the potential normalization of rates to slow inflation, merely saying that it remained committed to a “flexible” monetary policy to achieve its goal of 3 percent. While recognizing that prices rose more than forecast in July, gaining 4 percent from the year earlier, policy makers also highlighted the return of inflation to the “tolerance range.”

“The question that is on the table now is whether the central bank is only changing to neutrality or if this is the first of a number of steps towards cutting rates,” said Nathan Pincheira, an economist at Banchile Inversiones in Santiago. “We expect the bank to hold rates this year. We think a scenario where the bank cuts rates still needs time.”

Economists surveyed by the central bank expect rates to remain unchanged for the year ahead as the economy endures its third year of sluggish economic growth and the unemployment rate begins to climb. They are split over a potential rate rise in the following 12 months.

… (full story).