AUDUSD Weekly The Australian Dollar is expected to trade at 0.75 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 0.73 in 12 months time.
AUD/USD’s pull back from 0.8065 short term top extended lower last week. The pair lost some downside momentum after hitting 0.7838. With 0.7948 minor resistance intact, deeper decline could be seen. But we’d expect strong support from 0.7785 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.7328 to 0.8065 at 0.7783) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7948 will argue that the pull back is completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 0.8065.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8100) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now expected.
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