Currency Traders Week Ahead  In the US, inflation figures and JOLTs job openings will be in the spotlight.

FOREX INVESTORS BUZZ WORD MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS 7.14.17

FOREX INVESTORS BUZZ WORD MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS 7.14.17

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MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS 7.14.17 This morning, the greenback is trading lower against most of the major currencies, ahead of a string of key economic releases

FOREX INVESTORS BUZZ   MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS 7.14.17 This morning, the greenback is trading lower against most of the major currencies, ahead of a string of key economic releases in the US, consisting of the consumer price index, advance retail sales, the flash Reuters/Michigan consumer confidence index, industrial as well as manufacturing production data, all slated to release in a few hours.

The EUR is trading higher against the USD, after the Eurozone’s seasonally adjusted trade surplus expanded in May, aided by strength in exports.

The GBP is trading higher against the USD, as investors continued to cheer hawkish comments from the Bank of England (BoE) policymaker, Ian McCafferty. Yesterday, McCafferty, one of the three officials who voted for an interest rate hike last month, stated that the BoE should consider scaling back its £435.0 billion quantitative easing program sooner rather than later.

Yesterday, the greenback traded mostly lower in the New York session, against the key currencies. Macroeconomic data indicated that first time claims for US unemployment benefits fell less-than-expected in the week ended 08 July, thus suggesting that the nation’s labor market is healthy. Additionally, the nation’s producer price index exceeded market expectations on an annual basis in June. On the contrary, the nation’s budget deficit sharply widened in June.




 

 

MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS 7.14.17

 EURUSD Earl;y Watch Fell on Friday July 14

EURUSD

This morning at 09:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.1417 against the USD, 0.14% higher from the New York close. In economic news, the Eurozone’s seasonally adjusted trade surplus expanded less-than-expected in May. This morning, the pair traded at a high of 1.1424 and a low of 1.1392. The Euro traded 0.13% lower against the US Dollar in the New York session yesterday, with the pair closing the session at 1.1401. The pair is expected to its find support at 1.1384 and its first resistance at 1.1437.

EUR/USD breached 1.1382 minor support but quickly recovered. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Firm break of 1.1382 will suggest short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 1.1182). But downside should be contained by 1.1118 support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, break of 1.1489 will extend recent rally from 1.0339 to 1.1615 key resistance next.

 GBPUSD Early Watch Higher on Friday July 14

GBPUSD

The pair is trading at 1.2962 at 09:40 GMT this morning, with the GBP trading 0.15% higher against USD from the New York close. Amid no economic releases in the UK today, investors will look forward to Britain’s crucial inflation data, slated to release next week. The pair traded at a high of 1.2969 and a low of 1.2936 this morning. Yesterday, the Pound traded marginally higher against the US Dollar in the New York session and ended at 1.2943. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 1.2926, while on the upside, the first resistance level is situated at 1.2983.

GBP/USD remains on the upside for 1.3029/47 resistance zone. Decisive break there will extend the larger rally to 61.8% projection of 1.2108 to 1.3047 from 1.2588 at 1.3168 next. On the downside, sustained break of 1.2811 and 55 day EMA will dampen our bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.2588 support instead.

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In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a corrective pattern that is still in progress. While further upside is now in favor, overall outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3444 key resistance holds. Larger down trend from 1.7190 is expected to resume later after the correction completes. And break of 1.2588 will indicate that such down trend is resuming.

 USDJPY Early Watch Rose on Friday July 14

USDJPY

At 09:40 GMT, the pair is trading at 113.25, with the US Dollar trading slightly lower against Yen from the New York close. Earlier today, Japan’s final industrial production declined more than initially estimated in May. The USD hit a high of 113.58 and a low of 113.15 against the JPY during the session. Yesterday, the US Dollar traded marginally lower against the Yen in the New York session and ended at 113.28. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 112.9067, while on the upside, the first resistance level is situated at 113.5867.

USD/JPY remain neutral with focus on 112.88 support. Firm break of 112.88 will argue that rebound from 108.81 has completed at 114.49 after being rejected by 114.36 key near term resistance. That would also argue that the correction from 118.65 is still in progress. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 111.98). On the upside, decisive break of 114.36 resistance will confirm that corrective pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12. In that case, further rally would be seen to retest 118.65.

 USDCHF Early Watch Higher on Friday July 14

USDCHF

The USD is trading at 0.9691 against the CHF at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.23% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9700 and a low of 0.9659. In the New York session yesterday, the US Dollar rose 0.15% against the Swiss Franc to close at 0.9669. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 0.9654, while on the upside, the first resistance level is situated at 0.9714.

USD/CHF is still bounded in the consolidation pattern from 0.9551 and intraday bias remains neutral. Another decline is expected as long as 0.9770 resistance holds. Below 0.9595 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside. In such case, USD/CHF should fall through 0.9551 support resume the whole fall from 1.0342 and target 0.9443 key support level next. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.9770 will indicate near term reversal, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD.

 USDCAD Early watch Fell on Friday July 14

USDCAD

This morning at 09:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.2731 against the CAD, marginally higher from the New York close. The pair witnessed a high of 1.2747 and a low of 1.2723 during the session. In the New York session yesterday, the US Dollar fell 0.27% against the Canadian Dollar to close at 1.2728. Data indicated that Canada’s new housing price index rose more-than-expected on a monthly basis in May. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 1.2711, while on the upside, the first resistance level is situated at 1.2761.

USD/CAD remains on the downside. Current fall is expected to extend to retest 1.2460 low. On the upside, break of 1.2938 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

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In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The second leg should have finished at 1.3793. Break of 1.2460 will extend such correction to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we’d look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. However, firm break there will target 100% projection of 1.4689 to 1.2460 from 1.3793 at 1.1564

 AUDUSD Rose Early watch on Friday July 14

AUDUSD

The Australian Dollar is trading at 0.7758 against the US Dollar at 09:40 GMT, 0.34% higher from the New York close. Looking ahead, traders will keep a close watch on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s July meeting minutes, due to release next week. This morning, the pair traded at a high of 0.7763 and a low of 0.7729. The AUD rose against the USD in the New York session yesterday, closing 0.08% higher at 0.7732. The pair is expected to its find support at 0.7727 and its first resistance at 0.7776.

USD/CAD remains on the downside. Current fall is expected to extend to retest 1.2460 low. On the upside, break of 1.2938 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The second leg should have finished at 1.3793. Break of 1.2460 will extend such correction to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we’d look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. However, firm break there will target 100% projection of 1.4689 to 1.2460 from 1.3793 at 1.1564.

 Gold Prices Early Watch on Friday July 14

Gold

Gold is trading at $1218.40 per ounce at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.11% higher from the New York close. Gold witnessed a high of $1218.80 per ounce and a low of $1214.00 per ounce during the session. Gold fell in the New York session yesterday, closing 0.2% lower at $1217.10 per ounce, as strength in global equities dented demand for the precious yellow metal. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at $1214.20 per ounce, while on the upside, the first resistance level is at $1222.40 per ounce.

The dollar edged lower Friday after Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s two-day testimony to Congress.
The dollar index was off 0.09% at 95.47 at 04:15 ET, off a high of 95.61.
Yellen reiterated the idea of gradual tightening but noted the Fed has its eyes on developments on the inflation front.
U.S. inflation continues to trend below the Fed’s target of 2%.
U.S. CPI, retail sales and consumer sentiment figures are due out later in the session.
The odds of a December Fed hike currently stand below 50%.
The euro was firm above $1.14 with the ECB expected to announce plans for tapering asset purchases in September.
The (pound) traded above the $1.29 mark as the debate continues of the merits of early U.K. tightening.
The dollar was mostly steady against the yen at the 113 level.

 Silver Prices Early Watch Rose on Friday July 14

Silver

This morning, silver is trading at $15.64 per ounce at 09:40 GMT, 0.29% lower from the New York close. Silver witnessed a high of $15.70 per ounce and a low of $15.58 per ounce during the session. Yesterday, silver traded 1.26% lower in the New York session and closed at $15.69 per ounce, tracking losses in gold prices. Silver has its first support at $15.50 per ounce and its first resistance at $15.86 per ounce.

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Silver prices edged slightly lower on Thursday and were on track for their first loss in four days, as a semblance of calm returned to precious metals after a volatile start to July.

September silver contracts edged down 3 cents, or 0.1%, to $15.87 a troy ounce at 7:56 a.m. ET. The grey metal traded between $15.85 and $15.96 overnight.

Silver has gained in three of the past four sessions to trade at nearly one-week highs. Prices underwent a major correction last week, including a sudden flash crash that wiped as much as 11% off the grey metal’s value. The declines culminated in fresh 15-month lows on Friday.

 Crude oil Prices Early Watch Dropped on Friday July 14

Oil

At 09:40 GMT, the commodity is trading at $46.28 per barrel, 0.43% higher from the New York close. During the session, crude oil traded at a high of $46.37 per barrel and a low of $45.80 per barrel. The commodity advanced in the New York session yesterday, closing 1.27% higher at $46.08 per barrel, after the IEA revised up its global crude demand forecast to 98.0 million barrels per day this year. Crude oil has its first support at $45.42 per barrel and its first resistance at $46.75 per barrel.

Crude prices are around levels in late November last year, when a group of oil producers including Russia and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pledged to withhold around 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of output between January this year and March 2018 to tighten the market.

“OPEC compliance with production cuts slipped to 98 percent in June, but more importantly output from exempt (from cutting)members Libya and Nigeria is currently about 700,000 bpd higher than at the time of the November OPEC agreement, offsetting about 60 percent of the OPEC cuts. The growth in U.S. production over the same time negates the remainder,” U.S. investment bank Jefferies said.

U.S. oil production has risen by more than 10 percent over the past year to 9.4 million bpd.

 

Economic Snapshot

 

Eurozone trade surplus expanded in May

The Eurozone has registered a seasonally adjusted trade surplus of €19.70 billion in May, compared to a revised trade surplus of €18.60 billion in the prior month. Markets were expecting the region to register a trade surplus of €20.20 billion.

 The Eurozone trade surplus increased in May as growth in exports outpaced the rise in imports, data from Eurostat showed Friday.

The trade surplus increased to a seasonally adjusted EUR 19.7 billion in May from EUR 18.6 billion in April. Exports grew 2.1 percent from April and imports by 1.6 percent.

However, the trade surplus fell to an unadjusted EUR 21.4 billion from EUR 23.4 billion in the previous year. Exports logged an annual growth of 12.9 percent and imports posted 16.4 percent increase.

Japanese industrial production dropped in May

The final industrial production fell 3.60% in Japan on a MoM basis, in May. Industrial production had registered a rise of 4.00% in the prior month. The preliminary figures had indicated a fall of 3.30%.

 



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