Crude Oil Prices Weekly Forecast: Pressure On OPEC Intensifies
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Crude Oil Prices Weekly Forecast: Pressure On OPEC Intensifies

Crude Oil Prices Weekly Forecast: Pressure On OPEC Intensifies

  • Buz Investors Pressure On OPEC Intensifies A stronger dollar and higher OPEC output, together with expectations that the new US Administration will help support domestic production, will increase over-supply fears and make it even more difficult for OPEC to restore market confidence.
  • Corrective recoveries are likely to remain fragile in the short term. The short-term price action around the $43.00 p/b area will be watched very closely, with prices rebounding from this area in September after OPEC pledged to cut output levels.
  • A break below this level would have an important impact in undermining sentiment with the risk of a further slide to the key $40.0 p/b area. OPEC

Pressure On OPEC Intensifies

Crude Oil Prices Weekly Forecast: Pressure On OPEC Intensifies

Pressure On OPEC Intensifies OPEC commentary will inevitably be watched very closely in the short term, especially as confidence in its ability to reduce output has deteriorated sharply.

The pressure on OPEC has increased sharply given the slide in prices, deterioration in confidence and the latest output data from the cartel, which recorded an increase to fresh record highs of 33.64mn bpd.

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Pressure On OPEC Intensifies

There are no formal meetings scheduled this week, but informal briefings will inevitably be a crucial focus. In particular, rhetoric from Saudi and Iranian officials will be particularly important.

The latest COT data will be released on Monday, compared with the usual Friday given that there was a US Federal holiday this past Friday. Crude will tend to be vulnerable to further selling pressure if there has been a renewed increase in non-commercial long positions in the latest data.

The Baker Hughes rig-count data will be monitored closely at the end of next week, with some evidence that the increase in rigs has started to fade as prices have moved lower. The increase in the latest week was held to 2, although the total was still at the highest level since February. Any decline in rigs would increase expectations that US shale producers will effectively act as swing producers and curb output.

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